As the Democratic Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria (AANES) prepares for upcoming municipal elections on 11 June, Syria’s Assad regime may be drawing closer to negotiations over the future of the autonomous region. Journalist Fehim Taştekin, writing for Gazete Duvar, says that these negotiations may be in the interests of the AANES.
According to Taştekin, “The increasing pressure on the de facto autonomous structure in northeastern Syria and the narrowing of options for the future of the region are forcing the Kurds to recalculate. In fact, the need to review the situation has been recurring since the declaration of cantons in 2012 as new factors come into play.”
The Autonomous Administration’s Ilham Ahmed noted that although there has been some messaging between the AANES and Damascus, no framework for negotiations has yet been laid.
But Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has stated that he wants to push ahead with discussions. At the Ba’ath Party’s 4 May congress, he reportedly rejected a military conflict with AANES and said that a political solution could be reached within a few months.
Taştekin considers Assad’s statement to be overly ambitious. He argues that expecting an immediate resolution process from this messaging is overly optimistic. However, he notes a significant shift in attitudes: whereas Damascus initially took a cautious approach towards the autonomous administration, it has since started using terms like “collaborators”, “separatists”, and “terrorists” to describe them. Similarly, the Kurds now refer to the state with terms such as “the government of Damascus”, “Damascus soldiers”, “Assad’s army”, and “Damascus’ gangs”, instead of mentioning Syria. Despite this adversarial language, Taştekin believes that both the AANES and Assad see negotiations as being in their mutual interest.
According to Taştekin, an important factor in Assad not answering the AANES’ calls for dialogue thus far has been manoeuvres by Turkish President Recep Tayipp Erdoğan. He writes that Erdoğan and Assad were practically shaking hands prior to the 2023 Turkish parliamentary elections. But that the failure of Russian backed negotiations between Syria and Turkey means that Assad is more amenable to discussions with the AANES. The sticking point was Turkey’s occupation of northern Syria.
“Despite Russian pressure, Damascus stuck to the conditions of a Turkish army withdrawal and the cessation of support for armed groups. As Erdoğan realised that he would not get what he wanted from the quadrilateral table in Moscow, he reverted to his buffer plans and Assad distanced himself from the option of fighting his own people in a part of Syria for Ankara”, writes Taştekin.
Taştekin concludes that there is a big gap between the hopes of the AANES to maintain its autonomy and create democracy in Syria, with Assad’s plans. He writes: “We do not know what Assad means by resolving the issue in a few months, but so far he has been talking about local government with expanded powers, not autonomy or federalism. There is a big gap between the positions.”
