The potential of American withdrawal and intensifying Turkish aggression jeopardise the stability of the Kurds in North and East Syria, who find themselves increasingly sidelined amid the Gaza conflict and shifting international priorities, as highlighted by local officials and experts in conversations with Middle East Eye (MEE) on Thursday.
Representatives from the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and the Syrian Democratic Council (SDC) discussed the intensification of Turkish aggression with the MEE, especially targeting crucial infrastructure since the outbreak of the Israel-Palestine conflict on 7 October.
“The entire region is ablaze, and with the world’s focus on Gaza, there’s a fear that Turkey’s aggression will go unchecked,” Mahmoud Meslat, co-chair of the SDC, said. This sentiment is echoed by concerns over a possible US military exit reminiscent of Afghanistan’s “chaotic results”, according to Janda Muhammad, a senior SDC official.
Washington’s approval of the F-16 fighter jets sale to Turkey has heightened uncertainty in an already fragile security situation. “The Americans told us Turkey would not use the jets against their allies [the SDF],” said Meslat. “But we think Turkey will do what it wants.”
Experts view the deteriorating security situation as a deliberate move by Turkey to exploit the Gaza conflict, aiming to weaken the Kurdish-led administration’s financial base and strategic capabilities. Fabrice Balanche, a Syria specialist, pointed out the strategic implications of the situation, saying, “Northeast Syria is collateral damage of Gaza, I wouldn’t have too much hope about its future.”
“Ankara is leveraging the distraction provided by the Gaza war to target our economic lifelines, notably the oil infrastructure, delivering a significant blow to our budget,” SDF commander Mazloum Abdi told MEE, highlighting the severe impact of Turkish military actions on the region’s financial stability.
The debate over US withdrawal from Syria has been ongoing for quite some time, with some arguing that changing geopolitics make departure inevitable and casts doubt on the sustainability of US forces in the region. On the other hand, official US positions, reinforced by statements from the then-Acting Deputy Secretary of State Victoria Nuland and a significant Senate vote, are firmly in favour of remaining in Syria. This stance is motivated by the continuous threat posed by ISIS and the essential role US troops play in counterterrorism, especially in collaboration with the SDF, set against the broader aim of countering the influence of adversaries like Iran and its allies amid regional tensions.
