”Regime change is coming to Turkey.” With this bold declaration, Dr. Michael Rubin, senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute and a former Pentagon official, has issued one of the most direct and damning assessments of President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s rule to date. In an opinion piece published 23 March, Rubin likens the president’s authoritarian grip to historical dictatorships, stating, “Erdoğan plans to rule for life.” He also compared Erdoğan’s legacy unfavourably to the architects of Turkey’s past military coups.
Rubin’s article was triggered by the recent arrest of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, which he argues “should end any pretence in the State Department that Turkey is a democracy.” The arrest, he notes, places Imamoglu alongside jailed Kurdish politicians like Selahattin Demirtaş and Figen Yüksekdağ, who, according to Rubin, have been punished for their refusal to accept Erdoğan’s autocratic demands.
According to Rubin, Erdoğan envisions a hereditary dictatorship, grooming his sons or son-in-law to succeed him. However, Rubin asserts:
“The next Turkish president will emerge from among the thousands of political prisoners that Turkish prisons today hold.”
The scholar warns against the illusion in Western capitals that Turkey can automatically revert to democracy after Erdoğan’s departure. “More than 35 million Turks have gone through the Turkish education system under Erdoğan,” Rubin writes, adding that the state apparatus, military, business, and media sectors have all been reshaped in his image.
Rubin calls for the establishment of a South Africa- or Morocco-style Truth and Reconciliation Commission to systematically expose and dismantle Erdoğanism.
He outlines a list of unresolved issues: who falsified Erdoğan’s academic credentials, who bribed the judiciary, who profited from wars against the Kurds, who collaborated with jihadist factions in Syria, and how Turkish elites laundered money internationally.
Referring to the razing of Kurdish towns like Cizre (Cizîr) and Nusaybin (Nisêbîn), and the assassination of Kurdish figures in Paris, Rubin emphasises that these events must be investigated for justice to prevail. He also raises questions around Erdoğan’s alleged ties to the Islamic State (ISIS) and Al-Qaeda -linked groups in Syria, suggesting intelligence collaboration and profit-making from militant violence.
Erdogan’in kabinesi karar vermeli- istifa edip Ozgurlesmis Türkiye ye hizmet edecek veya Erdogan la ya hapise ya da surgune gidecek. #Turkiye @RTErdogan
— Michael Rubin (@mrubin1971) March 24, 2025
In a direct message posted in Turkish on X (formerly Twitter), Rubin wrote to a Turkish audience:
“Erdogan’in kabinesi karar vermeli- istifa edip Ozgurlesmis Türkiye ye hizmet edecek veya Erdogan la ya hapise ya da surgune gidecek.” This translates to: “Erdoğan’s cabinet must decide: resign and serve a liberated Turkey, or go to prison or exile with Erdogan.”
Rubin’s intervention comes at a moment of deepening authoritarianism in Turkey and growing debate over how international actors should prepare for the post-Erdoğan period. He urges the United States and Europe to abandon their cautious stance and support democratic forces within Turkey in anticipation of transformative change. “Peace requires justice. Both require truth,” Rubin concludes.
Erdoğan and Trump have recently had direct telephone contact since the latter returned to office. During his first term, Trump was known to favour Erdoğan, but the dynamics for his second term remain unclear, particularly given shifting US foreign policy priorities towards safeguarding Israel’s security and strengthening strategic ties with Saudi Arabia in the broader Middle East.
Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan is scheduled to visit Washington DC on 25–26 March, following Trump-Erdogan phone call on 18 March, adding further significance to the timing of Rubin’s article.
