The Biden administration’s recent rush to complete its transfer of $6bn of financial and military aid to Ukraine, coupled with the authorisation for Kyiv to launch ATACM missile strikes into Russian territory, marks a significant shift in US policy.
At the same time, Russia is undertaking decisive actions to consolidate its strategic and territorial gains, all in the shadow of Donald Trump’s anticipated return to the White House. Biden’s move to cross previously held red lines suggests an effort to bolster Ukraine’s position before Trump’s presidency begins, particularly as Trump has vowed to resolve the war within 24 hours of assuming office. These developments underscore mounting uncertainty about the war’s trajectory.
According to The Wall Street Journal, Trump is committed to swiftly ending the war while questioning the financial costs borne by the US. He has consistently criticised what he describes as the “waste of American resources” in military aid to Ukraine.
In parallel, Kyiv fears that Trump, once in power, may weaken US financial and military support, or negotiate terms that could involve ceding Ukrainian territories to Russia.
One plausible scenario following Trump’s inauguration involves Ukraine relinquishing its NATO ambitions and conceding parts of its territory to Russia. While Trump has yet to make any explicit statements on this matter, his prospective National Security Advisor, Mike Waltz, has warned of “another step up the escalation ladder”, leaving future developments uncertain.
European counterparts worry that Trump’s return could compel them to shoulder Ukraine’s defence alone. Germany, France, and the Baltic states have pledged ongoing support, but acknowledge that European assistance alone cannot substitute for US military aid. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz recently urged Russian President Vladimir Putin to end the conflict, warning that the involvement of North Korean forces would mark a “serious escalation”.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky remains adamant that no territory will be ceded. He insists on a full Russian withdrawal and adherence to Ukraine’s post-Soviet borders, viewing NATO membership as essential for long-term security. While Zelensky is cautiously optimistic that Trump’s presidency might hasten the war’s end, escalating tensions continue, with Ukraine leveraging advanced Western weaponry to strike targets in Russian-held areas.
On the other hand, Putin has expressed conditional willingness to negotiate a ceasefire, contingent upon Trump’s inauguration. Moscow seeks to freeze the conflict along current lines and demands recognition of its claims to territories like Crimea. Additional conditions include Kyiv abandoning its NATO ambitions, expelling NATO troops, reducing its military capacity, and ensuring the protection of Russian language rights.
The lead-up to Trump’s return to the White House signals the emergence of potential scenarios that could weaken Ukraine’s position while leaving the EU to confront Moscow alone.
