Jonathan Schanzer, Executive Director of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), delivered stark testimony to a US Congressional subcommittee, arguing that Turkey’s current trajectory under President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan poses a grave threat to US and NATO interests. Once seen as a model of ‘Islamic democracy’, Schanzer argues that Turkey has turned into an authoritarian state akin to the many autocracies of the Middle East. He warned that if Ankara “continues on its current trajectory, this headache will soon become a migraine” and stressed the urgency of reassessing US policy. Schanzer outlined five critical issues behind Turkey’s troubling shift, ranging from terrorist affiliations to aggressive regional ambitions.
Chief among Schanzer’s concerns is Turkey’s alleged support for extremist organisations, notably Hamas, al-Qaeda affiliates and Islamic State (ISIS). He draws particular attention to Ankara’s apparent role in supporting Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), an al-Qaeda-linked group that now holds sway over large parts of Syria. Schanzer argues that lax Turkish border policies and financial systems have allowed these groups to fundraise and operate with relative ease, undermining international counter-terrorism efforts. He wrote:
“One such official told me in 2012 that U.S. agencies confronted the government in Ankara, which did not deny its support for violent jihadis. Rather, the Turks acknowledged their proxy campaign to bring down the Assad regime with violent non-state actors and promised to clean up the problem after the Assad regime fell.”
Turkey’s so-called ‘neo-Ottoman’ aspirations are also on display in the eastern Mediterranean, where its ‘blue homeland’ doctrine has challenged the maritime claims of NATO allies such as Greece and Cyprus. Repeated naval standoffs have raised concerns about the risk of open conflict. Schanzer highlights how this dynamic is straining alliance cohesion, as NATO members find themselves at odds over Ankara’s assertive maritime posture. At the same time, Turkey’s close ties with Russia – exemplified by its purchase of the S-400 air defence system – raise intelligence security alarms, given the potential for Russian technology to compromise NATO hardware. Schanzer also points to Turkey’s trade links with Russia, which he argues facilitate sanctions evasion and undermine Western efforts to contain Moscow’s aggressive moves elsewhere.
“The lightning collapse of the Assad regime and the equally rapid rise of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham was Erdogan’s first major conquest in the Middle East. Turkish influence can be seen throughout the new regime. Turkish minders often attend HTS meetings with foreign diplomats. The Turkish lira is the currency of choice in Syria’s population centers. In many ways, Syria looks like a Turkish “sanjak” or province — which harkens back to a time (the 14th to the 20th centuries) when Turkey was a global power.”
Domestically, Schanzer describes Turkey’s government under President Erdoğan as increasingly authoritarian. Since a failed coup in 2016, he argues, the government has restricted the media, purged the civil service and concentrated power in the presidency to an unprecedented degree. With rumours circulating that Erdoğan may run for another term beyond the constitutional limit, fears of entrenched one-party rule are growing. This puts Turkey at odds with NATO’s fundamental emphasis on democracy and the rule of law.
To counter these developments, Schanzer calls for a recalibration of US policy towards Turkey. He proposes targeted sanctions on Turkish entities involved in terror financing and suggests blocking Ankara’s reintegration into advanced weapons projects – notably the F-35 fighter jet programme – until it removes Russian military hardware. Schanzer also recommends increased cooperation with neighbouring partners such as Greece and Cyprus and including the possibility of joint maritime patrols to deter Turkish provocations.
Controversially Schanzer also urges cooperation with Israel. However the Israeli state is conductung its own colonial expansion in the region, and a genocide in Gaza which has claimed up to 70,000 lives. Palestinian civil society movements are calling for the US and other states to end military cooperation with Israel.
Schanzer maintains that by presenting a united front, the United States and its regional allies could ostensibly push back against Ankara’s aggressive moves while signalling that its actions have tangible consequences.
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Schanzer concludes by arguing that Washington should no longer view Turkey as a reliable pro-Western ally by default. Rather, he calls for a more conditional approach in which Ankara’s access to economic, political and military benefits is closely tied to its willingness to address Western concerns. Only through consistent diplomatic and economic pressure, he argues, can the United States protect its interests and encourage Turkey to align itself with the broader priorities of NATO and the democratic world. Schanzer’s overarching message is clear: if Washington does not take a firm stance, Turkey’s actions could further destabilise key regions and undermine the NATO alliance. In his view, Ankara’s path – rooted in authoritarianism and expansionism – marks a stark departure from the spirit of cooperation that once defined its relations with the West. Only by imposing real costs on its current approach, Schanzer argues, and by coordinating with European and Middle Eastern partners, can the United States protect stability and bring Turkey back to shared democratic principles.
