Economist Çeleng Omer warns that Turkey risks losing its pivotal role as a transit country if internal reforms are not implemented. In an interview with Mezopotamya Agency’s Ceylan Şahinli on Friday, Omer explained that global powers are realigning trade routes to secure the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC). This expansive project, agreed upon at the 2023 G20 summit, is designed to facilitate secure trade from India to Europe, bypassing Turkey in favour of routes through Saudi Arabia, Israel and Italy.
The IMEC project was announced following China’s increasing dominance in international capital markets and the efforts of global powers to secure their positions in trade. This large-scale intercontinental logistics corridor was agreed upon by the United States, India, Europe, and Gulf countries. It starts in India, connecting to ports in the United Arab Emirates before extending via railway through Saudi Arabia and Jordan to Israel’s Haifa Port. From there, it continues via Cyprus to Greece’s Piraeus Port and spreads across Europe, ultimately reaching Germany’s Hamburg Port after passing through Eastern Europe.
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The biggest challenge facing this agreement is security. The first step in addressing this was taken in 2020 under US President Donald Trump, when bilateral agreements known as the “Abraham Accords” were signed to normalise relations between Arab states and Israel. The Israel-Palestine war that erupted after the 2023 G20 summit, followed by the downfall of Syria’s 58-year-long Ba’ath regime in December 2024, were both developments that disrupted the security framework necessary for this project.
Since the fall of the regime, Syria has been engulfed in continued conflict and chaos. Various global powers, including Turkey, are now seeking a place at the negotiating table in the post-regime landscape. However, the broader restructuring of the Middle East led by global powers continues to significantly impact both the internal governance and foreign policies of states in the region.
Speaking on the IMEC project and the situation in Syria, North and East Syrian economist Çeleng Omer pointed out that colonialist powers are now implementing their plans for the Middle East within this new design.
Referring to the colonial struggles that resulted in the First and Second World Wars and the subsequent fragmentation of the Middle East into unitary states, Omer explained:
“As a result of this partition, the Kurds were left without a state and Kurdistan was divided into four parts. These lands were among the richest and most beautiful in the region, and this division has persisted into the present century. The global system evolved into its current structure based on this foundation. However, even this arrangement no longer satisfies global powers.”
Omer argued that economic crises have been the underlying cause of major geopolitical developments, from the fall of Saddam Hussein in Iraq to the so-called “Arab Spring”. He also linked the Ukraine-Russia war to disputes over Russian gas supplies and control of key food trade routes.
He noted that Turkey has sought to avoid becoming a direct target in these geopolitical shifts and has shaped its policies accordingly:
"Turkey has tried to position itself outside the conflicts and has taken steps to avoid becoming a target. However, it cannot remain distant from developments in Libya and Iraq. The economic situation in Turkey is already clear. If it fails to resolve its internal democratic and social issues, it will lose its strategic advantage as a transit hub. The IMEC corridor, which runs from India to Europe, bypasses Turkey. It is charting a route through Saudi Arabia and Israel to Italy and then onwards to Europe, excluding Turkey in the process. This means that Turkey is losing its importance in the eyes of international capital in the new century. For this reason, Turkey must also undergo internal restructuring. Instead of engaging in war and shedding blood, it must move towards a democratic and peaceful transformation."
Omer added that just as global powers are restructuring the international order, there is also an expectation that Turkey will undertake its own internal restructuring.
Highlighting the broader impact of Turkey’s internal situation on the Middle East, Omer emphasised:
“Turkey is now expected to resolve this issue urgently and to finally recognise the Kurds. The Kurdish Freedom Movement is determined to address this issue. Failing to resolve it will only deepen the crisis further. This problem will inevitably reach a breaking point.
The division of Kurdistan into four parts has not only affected the Kurds but has also created crises in the four states that control these regions. In each of these four countries, the Kurdish issue remains the most fundamental problem. Syria is currently experiencing this in its most severe form.”
Stressing that the most viable solution for Syria’s people is an autonomous or federal model, Omer concluded:
“Despite its flaws, Iraq’s federal system has provided a relatively positive example for the region. Similarly, the Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria represents a crucial model.
Syria, like Iraq, is home to multiple ethnic, religious and cultural identities. For this reason, the ongoing crisis in Syria can only be resolved through some form of federal, autonomous or confederal system. Ultimately, at the heart of these conflicts, we see that the Kurdish issue remains the central problem.”
