The US is ramping up diplomatic and security engagements in the Middle East, deploying high-level diplomacy to reshape alliances, increasingly sidelining Turkey in the process.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio has launched a regional tour leading high-level talks, prioritising Israel, Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states and overseeing the expansion of the India – Middle East – Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC) and the Russia-Ukraine peace talks in Riyadh. Meanwhile, Turkey, once a key US partner in both security and mediation, finds itself excluded from the process.
Rubio’s agenda centres on three key areas – facilitating peace talks between Russia and Ukraine in Saudi Arabia, a role previously held by Turkey, advancing the IMEC trade corridor, which bypasses Turkey in favour of Saudi Arabia, Israel and Egypt, and strengthening US-Israel ties, including discussions on security and Gaza’s reconstruction.
Despite Turkey’s strategic position as NATO’s only Middle East member, Rubio has not scheduled a visit to Ankara, a decision seen as a deliberate snub amid worsening US-Turkey relations.
Russia-Ukraine peace talks
Washington has increasingly turned to Saudi Arabia instead of Turkey as a preferred mediator in geopolitical conflicts. This shift became clear when the Russia-Ukraine peace talks were moved to Riyadh, with the US no longer relying on Turkey as a diplomatic facilitator.
Rubio has arrived in Saudi Arabia to lead high-level negotiations between Russian and American officials, aimed at ending the nearly three-year war in Ukraine. The talks follow a direct phone call between US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin last week, where Trump reportedly urged the Kremlin to start formal negotiations.
This is the first high-level US-Russia dialogue in years, marking a potential diplomatic breakthrough. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and Kremlin advisor Yuri Ushakov are leading the Russian delegation, meeting Rubio, National Security Advisor Mike Waltz and White House Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff.
The meeting is expected to lay the groundwork for a potential Trump-Putin summit later this year.
The Kremlin confirmed the visit, with spokesperson Dmitry Peskov stating that the discussions would focus on restoring Russia-US relations and preparing for potential ceasefire negotiations in Ukraine.
The choice of Saudi Arabia as the venue is a strategic shift, as Turkey had previously played the central role in the negotiations, mediating grain deal discussions and prisoner exchanges. The Biden administration had worked closely with Turkey, but Trump’s White House is now prioritising Riyadh over Ankara.
Trade corridor
The US and India are pushing forward with IMEC, their ambitious trade route designed to counter China’s Belt and Road Initiative. The corridor excludes Turkey despite years of lobbying from Ankara, running instead through India, Saudi Arabia, Israel, Egypt and Cyprus.
Turkey has sought inclusion in IMEC for years, proposing itself as a key transit hub. The Trump administration has instead prioritised Saudi Arabia and Israel, viewing them as more reliable economic partners. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has since proposed an alternative trade corridor through Iraq, though the feasibility of this suggestion remains uncertain. The exclusion from IMEC isolates Turkey from Washington’s geopolitical and economic strategy in the region.
A senior US official told the Middle East Eye:
“Turkey is a NATO ally, but recent geopolitical shifts mean our priority is strengthening direct trade corridors with reliable partners.”
Gaza ‘resettlement’ plan
Rubio’s Middle East tour also includes discussions with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, focusing on regional security and Trump’s vision for the reconstruction of Gaza. The new US administration has floated a highly controversial plan, in which Trump proposed the US take ownership of Gaza and develop the war-torn region as the “Riviera of the Middle East”, seeking in the meantime to relocate over two million Palestinian residents from Gaza to neighbouring Arab states.
The plan has been widely condemned as an attempt at forced displacement rather than reconstruction. Egypt, Jordan and the Gulf states have rejected the proposal, also stating that they will not accept displaced Palestinians. The Guardian reported that US officials believe the reconstruction plan could stabilise the region, though critics warn it could further inflame tensions between Israel and the Arab nations. Trump has also recently lifted restrictions on arms sales to Israel, escalating tensions in the region.
Thus Turkey is excluded not only from US-Russia diplomacy and IMEC, but also from regional security talks, further highlighting Ankara’s growing isolation in Washington’s strategic calculus.
At the 61st Munich Security Conference on 14 February, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan held their inaugural face-to-face meeting. The Department of State reported that their discussions centred on regional alliances and security issues.
Notably, the diplomatic rapport between Fidan and Rubio appeared less congenial compared to previous interactions between Turkish officials and former Secretary of State Antony Blinken. Observers at the conference remarked that the handshake between Rubio and Fidan lacked the warmth characteristic of prior US-Turkey engagements.
This shift in dynamics occurs as Saudi Arabia solidifies its position as Washington’s principal partner in the region, leading to Turkey’s increasing marginalisation from pivotal geopolitical and economic dialogues.
