With the 2024 US presidential election in its final stages, recent polling between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris reveals a tight race, with neither candidate showing a consistent national lead. The too-close-to-call polls add further tension to an election likely to have significant consequences for Kurdish regions, Palestine and the Middle East at large, albeit analysts have projected that there are likely to be more continuities than differences between both candidates’ geopolitical and diplomatic strategies.
As of the latest polling data, Harris and Trump appear closely matched nationally, often within the margin of error, continuing long-term trends that have persisted for several weeks. Multiple sources collected by Newsweek have reported averages showing both candidates around 48-49% support, reflecting voter polarisation across key demographics. 2020’s ‘most accurate’ pollster puts Trump ahead, whereas well-known polling source Ipsos suggests a 49% lead for the Democratic candidate Harris.
State-by-state polling is perhaps more important, with battleground states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin set to play pivotal roles in determining the outcome. Once again, arris has shown narrow advantages in some polls within these areas, while Trump leads in others, indicating a volatile electorate where slight shifts could determine the electoral college winner. Tthe candidates’ leads in many states remain within 5 percentage points, keeping these key sites of contest in ‘razor thin’ territory, the Financial Times has reported.
“Should Harris or Trump win the so-called blue wall states — Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — and North Carolina overnight, for example, that would form a relatively quick path to 270,” the FT say, suggesting key points to look for on election night.
Both campaigns are making last-minute pushes to swing undecided voters. Trump’s campaign has focused on themes of economic revival and border security, which resonate with his base and some independent voters concerned about inflation and immigration. Meanwhile, Harris is leaning into her record on healthcare and social policies. The Middle East, and particularly Israel’s war on Gaza, has also been a key electoral issue.
Nonetheless, analysts have noted the continuities between Democrat and Republican broad-brush support for Israel during its ongoing war on Gaza. In terms of Turkey and Kurdish policy, Al Monitor’s Fulya Ozerkan has argued that the US will remain distant from Turkey regardless of who takes the White House, nurturing continued suspicions over Turkey’s relationship with China and Russia. Other analysts and experts have projected that the US will continue a pragmatic reliance on Israel, Turkey and other authoritarian state allies in the Middle East.
Results will continue emerging throughout the night of 5 November, and there may well be no clear outcome for days ahead. In 2020, it took days before official results became clear, and Trump’s camp has already begun making claims of foul play on election day, often based on limited evidence. Key players in the Middle East will keep watching the developments closely, as the shape of the next US administration takes place in the coming days.
