Turkey’s intensified efforts to launch new and wider cross-border military offensives against Kurdish groups indicate a renewed determination to further increase its military presence in Iraqi Kurdistan. The move is seen as an attempt to alter the regional balance of power in the Middle East.
Recently, there has been an acceleration of political, military and diplomatic initiatives by Turkish officials for the expansion of their operations against the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) in Iraq.
Turkish Defence Minister Yaşar Güler said on Monday that with the concerted military action “terrorism will not be an issue for Turkey”. Güler’s statement echoed President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, who last week outlined the creation of a ’30-40 kilometre security corridor’ along the borders with Iraq and Syria as a measure to eradicate the PKK presence.
In recent years, Turkey has carried out several military operations in northern Iraq targeting PKK militants and their bases. Observers see Turkey’s moves as an attempt to pressure Iraq to oppose Kurdish forces and thereby change the dynamics of the ongoing conflicts in the region. According to some analysts, by stepping up its activities, Turkey hopes to turn regional powers such as Iraq against the Kurdish movement, both militarily and politically. This would not only weaken the group’s influence but also upset the balance in the Middle East, potentially favouring Turkish interests.
One of the key players in Turkey’s efforts is the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP), a political party in the Kurdistan region of Iraq. The KDP has historically had strained relations with the PKK and has aligned itself with Turkey. Turkish officials have been in contact with the KDP leadership, seeking their cooperation in the planned offensive against the PKK. This suggests that Turkey is using existing political alliances to further its military objectives.
The region has already experienced considerable instability and conflict in recent years, with various actors vying for control and influence. Any escalation of hostilities could exacerbate an already fragile situation, leading to further displacement of civilians and a potential humanitarian crisis.
As the Kurdish question is not confined to Iraq and Turkey, but also extends to other countries in the region, including Syria and Iran, any escalation of conflict in one area is likely to have a ripple effect throughout the region, potentially leading to a wider conflagration.
Minister Güler had previously stated that Turkey had “embarked on a comprehensive conceptual change in the fight against terrorism” since 2016. According to Güler, this conceptual change, which comes after the collapse of two and a half years of peace talks between the PKK and the Turkish government in 2015, involves ‘securing the borders from the front’. In other words, Turkey’s military presence on the territory of neighbouring countries such as Syria and Iraq.
Turkey’s extensive operations in northern Iraq began in 2018. Before 2018, the country had only 10 military bases in the region, while today it is said to have over 70 bases, although the exact number is not disclosed for security reasons. With the new operation announced by Erdoğan last week, the number of these bases and Turkish troops inside Iraqi borders is expected to increase further.
In addition to ground operations, Turkey frequently organises air strikes. According to Reuters, Turkish forces carried out 6,000 airstrikes in Syria and Iraq between the beginning of 2018 and June 2023. This compares to 500 between 2016 and 2018.
Both Iraq and Syria frequently accuse Turkey of “violating their territorial integrity”, while the upcoming security meeting with Baghdad highlights Turkey’s approach of involving Iraqi authorities in addressing Turkish operations.
Turkey claims that its cross-border operations are nearing the end of the PKK and that it is suffering far fewer casualties than in the past. However, statistics show that more than 1,400 Turkish law enforcement officers have lost their lives in cross-border operations since 2015.
