Cafer Tar
“Our readers have been following Osman Kavala case for a long time now. I don’t want to bore you with the already-known details of the case, but we must all study in depth the developments of the past few days regarding the Kavala case and we must take our position accordingly,” writes Cafer Tar for Yeni Özgür Politika.
The fascist regime in Turkey led by [Recep Tayyip] Erdoğan and [Devlet] Bahçeli (the leader of ultra-nationalist Nationalist Movement Party) has been keeping people in prisons as ‘hostages’ in order to have their backs up against the wall. The fact that many people, who are either citizens of European countries or have close relations with Western countries, are kept in Turkey’s prisons with fictitious cases is a part of Turkey’s ‘hostage policies.’
The regime, sinking in dirt up to its neck is ready to do anything in order to extend its rule. Indeed, it has nothing left to do. Normally, in a democracy, it is only natural for a ruling party to lose its power and turn into an opposition, but under these circumstances, losing power probably means for Erdoğan and his closest circle, a new beginning filled with new investigations and court cases, one following the another.
The Turkish judiciary, which follows the words coming from Erdoğan’s mouth, will change its attitude the minute the government changes and the cases waiting on the shelves will be opened, one by one.
Right now, this process has begun with the US Appeals Court rejecting the application of Halkbank. The Court ruled that Halkbank can be prosecuted over accusations it helped Iran evade American sanctions.
At this point, it is seen as a sure thing that the investigation will not remain limited to the Halkbank bureaucrats and the prosecutor will expand the investigation to include Erdoğan and his family members. The prosecutor has repeatedly shown his intention to do so, many times before.
A few days ago, another development occured that concerned Erdoğan just as much as the Halkbank case. Turkey was ‘grey listed’ by the Financial Action Task Force of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) for failing to combat money laundering and terrorist financing.
One should not see these two decisions coming one after another as coincidental; with these two decisions, Western countries have clearly given the message that they will no longer let what the Erdoğan/Bahçeli regime passes go unchallenged.
With rage over these issues, Erdoğan wants the ambassadors of 10 countries, who called for the release of philanthropist and businessman Osman Kavala, to be declared as “persona non grata.” The regime, which is currently a hybrid regime (a regime in which the institutions do not function anymore, but which has still not yet completely shifted to a dictatorship), intends to shift to a total dictatorship, with increased tensions with the West.
The Kavala case has turned into an excuse both for the Western countries and Erdoğan regime. Both sides want to strengthen their position over Osman Kavala. The Kavala case, therefore, needs to be evaluated in light of the Halkbank case in the USA and Turkey’s inclusion on the financial ‘grey list.’
The AKP [Erdoğan’s Justice and Development Party] circles, that have been mired in all kinds of shadowy networks from drugs to money laundering, have on purpose made dysfunctional the precious metal trade and real estate markets. Otherwise, they could not have legalised and released into circulation their illegally acquired money.
An unrestrained real estate market and crooked banking sector is the choice of Erdoğan’s and his circle, but this situation, which has been tolerated for a long time – for many reasons – has turned into an intolerable global problem.
The worst ending for Erdoğan, increasingly losing his popularity among people inside his circles and turning into a direct influencer of the trials taking place outside these circles, is to lose his power via elections. Because, then, his rhetoric, based on the argument that “the people have chosen me,” will be taken away from his hands and his crying voice will never find resonance ever again.
Therefore, we can foresee that Erdoğan will risk all kinds of provocations to not go to elections that he will lose. As a matter of fact, there is nothing left for him and his circle anymore.
In this case, we should be prepared, both for a possible election and to a ‘chaos’ that we cannot yet foresee, in terms of its violence levels.
