The Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), which has waged a 40-year armed campaign against the Turkish state, announced on 12 May that it will dissolve its military structure and instead pursue its goals through “democratic politics”. Defence analyst Rebecca Lucas of RAND Europe has examined the implications of this shift in a recent article published on Tuesday.
The announcement, following the group’s 12th Congress, marks what could be a turning point in one of the Middle East’s longest-running conflicts.
“The PKK’s decision to disarm and disband has important lessons for any country facing a seemingly intractable insurgency,” Lucas wrote in a commentary published by The Conversation.
Though previous ceasefires have failed, the group’s formal commitment to abandoning violence “marks an important step towards ending an insurgency that has lasted over 40 years”, she said.
The move comes after renewed—albeit undisclosed—talks between Turkish officials and jailed PKK leader Abdullah Öcalan, who has been in solitary confinement since 1999. The shift, Lucas noted, is likely influenced by regional changes, Turkish domestic politics, and Öcalan’s personal ambition to secure a lasting legacy.
“There’s no doubt that military pressure has been important in downgrading the PKK as an insurgency,” Lucas said. But she stressed that force alone could not bring sustainable peace: “Military oppression against the PKK has often backfired and reinforced public support for the group.”
Instead, Turkey has increasingly combined armed counterinsurgency with economic and political initiatives. According to Lucas, “Ankara has pursued parallel tracks of negotiation and force… improving counter-terrorism capabilities while also investing in economic opportunities for Kurds and cutting financial flows to the PKK.”
The transformation of the PKK—from a Marxist-Leninist group seeking Kurdish independence to a movement advocating local autonomy through “democratic confederalism”—has evolved over decades. Lucas noted that the group’s reduced reliance on violence in Europe and western Turkey aligns with broader global trends in insurgent demobilisation.
“There are a large number of cases in which insurgencies or terrorist organisations shifted… to either transform into a political party or combine with one,” she said, citing peace processes in Colombia and the Philippines.
Lucas credits Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan for managing the dual-track strategy of pressure and negotiation. Ankara’s closer ties with the Kurdistan Democratic Party in northern Iraq, she adds, have provided both military and political support to isolate the PKK.
Yet, Lucas cautions that many risks remain. “Successfully bringing insurgencies to and through a negotiated settlement requires long-term investment and effort,” she said. Issues like prisoner releases, constitutional reforms, and the reintegration of former fighters will test the Turkish government’s commitment.
“Concerns have been raised about whether the Turkish government will deliver,” Lucas said, pointing out that Turkey is currently rated as “Not Free” by Freedom House. “States with flawed democracies have more difficulty ending insurgencies on favourable terms.”
Still, the PKK’s announcement provides a rare glimmer of hope in a region often defined by unresolved conflicts.
Lucas concludes that governments around the world should take note: “Rather than simply aiming to defeat an insurgency, it’s usually more effective to combine military pressure with political reform that aims to remove the reasons for the insurgency.”
