Matt Broomfield
Regional state powers Iran, Iraq and Turkey are putting aside their historic differences to unite in a common front against the Kurdish political movement. The triangulation of these state forces against their shared Kurdish enemy is of grave concern, marking a new regional consensus contextualised by Turkey’s efforts to retain its influential geostrategic position.
In a sense, the unity of these three states against diverse forces linked to the embattled Kurdish movement is something of a compliment to the Kurds. With a combined GDP of close to $2 trillion, and access to both powerful domestic arms industries and the support and trade proffered by international guarantor powers, none of the regional state actors have proven able to totally drive the Kurdish guerilla out of its mountain retreats, and nor (more significantly) to eradicate its enduring support base among millions of ordinary Kurds in rural villages and working-class communities.
But the playing-field, which was always harshly tilted against the stateless, underfunded, isolated Kurds, is tipping further. Along the Iran-Iraq border, these two old foes have managed to reach an accord praised by a Revolutionary Corps Guard Commander as “the greatest victory of the Islamic Republic”. Bases near the Iranian border in Iraq, which long offered shelter to populations of Iranian Kurdish opposition fighters and their families, have been forcibly emptied ahead of Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian’s visit to the country. This procedure, it should be noted, has been facilitated by the authorities in Iraq’s semi-autonomous Kurdistan Region (KRI), always eager to curry favour with authoritarian regional states at the expense of sacrificing other Kurdish political actors.
Meanwhile, Turkey has reached a security accord of its own with Iraq, empowering it to continue its deadly drone war
Meanwhile, Iraq’s security establishment has reached a similar accord with Turkey, again overcoming past enmities to reach a historic agreement aimed at targeting the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK). On the pretext of targeting the PKK, Turkey has repeatedly penetrated deep into sovereign Iraqi territory with airstrikes often hitting civilian targets, as well as establishing a de facto occupation in western regions along its border nominally forming the KRI’s territory.
Iraq has sporadically protested against Turkey’s capture of terrain deep within its borders, but in general appears too weak to resist its political domination from Turkey in the north and Iran in the east, with both states anticipating further control of the region as US influence dwindles ahead of an expected withdrawal of troops long stationed there.
A mooted withdrawal plan would see see hundreds of troops leave by September 2025, with the remainder departing by the end of 2026, though some might remain in a new advisory role. The fall-out from this withdrawal, which was temporarily postponed due to Israel’s war on Gaza, remains to be seen, but is likely to strengthen both Iran and Turkey – Iran as it feels its long-term efforts to achieve dominance in Iraq are bearing fruit, Turkey as it seeks to align itself as the USA’s crucial interlocutor in the region.
The Kurdish resistance in cities, villages and mountaintops is never going to be eradicated. But a long, hard winter looms, in which regional actors with no interest in improving the lives of ordinary civilians will seek to consolidate their own gains and reap the benefits of a confused, failing Western intervention in the region.
