The provincial elections in Iraq, held on 18 December, excluding the Kurdistan Region of Iraq, have painted a complex political scenario, particularly in Kirkuk province. The Washington Kurdish Institute reports a high turnout in Kirkuk at 66%, compared to a national turnout of 41%, according to the Independent High Electoral Commission (IHEC). This election marked the first provincial council elections in a decade.
Journalist Aram Germyanî’s analysis emphasises the significant influence of external powers in Iraq’s elections. He highlights the victory of Iranian-backed parties, such as the Nebni Alliance led by Hadi El-Amiri and the State of Law Coalition under former Prime Minister Nuri El-Maliki. These results underscore Iran’s substantial influence in Iraqi politics.
In Kirkuk, a province known for its diverse ethnic composition, the election results were notably fragmented. No single party or ethnic group secured a majority, reflecting the complex ethnic dynamics in the region. Kurdish parties, particularly the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) and the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP), received substantial votes, but not enough to form a majority. The PUK, according to Germyanî, significantly increased its vote count in Kirkuk compared to the 2021 parliamentary elections, indicating their strong influence in the region.
Germyanî also points out Turkey’s long-standing influence in Kirkuk through the Turkmen parties. However, the Turkmen parties’ limited success in this election, winning only two seats despite Turkey’s support, marks a setback for Turkey’s policy in the region. This diminished influence is a significant shift in Kirkuk’s political landscape.
The involvement of external powers in Kirkuk’s politics, particularly Iran, Turkey and the United States, is a critical factor, as Germyanî notes. He argues that the selection of Kirkuk’s governor will likely be influenced more by international politics than local electoral outcomes, highlighting the region’s geopolitical significance.
Germyanî also sheds light on the internal divisions within Kurdish politics. The rifts among Kurdish parties, notably between the KDP and PUK, and their imperative to form coalitions with either Arab or Turkmen parties, are crucial in determining the governance structure post-election.
In a nutshell, Kurdish parties, the PUK and KDP, collectively secured seven seats, with the PUK notably increasing its vote count from previous elections. Additionally, an ally of the PUK claimed the Christian quota seat. Sunni Arab parties garnered six seats, while the Turkmen, despite backing from Turkey, won only two seats. These results prevented any single group or coalition from dominating, setting the stage for intricate negotiations and alliances to form a governing body in Kirkuk. This reflects how both internal ethnic divisions and external geopolitical interests are involved in this contested region.
