Israel’s most severe attacks on Lebanon since 2006 have resulted in at least 558 fatalities, nearly 1,700 injuries, and the displacement of thousands from southern cities, according to figures obtained from Al Jazeera, a Qatari state-funded media outlet, on Tuesday. With tensions escalating, the possibility of a full-scale regional war appears increasingly plausible.
Reports indicate that since 23 September, Israel has launched a new wave of airstrikes and tank fire targeting Hezbollah, the militant group allied with Iran. The scale of these assaults has forced tens of thousands of civilians to flee urban centres in search of safety, as civilian casualties continue to mount.
On Monday, the Israeli military warned residents of southern and eastern Lebanon to evacuate sensitive areas in advance of planned large-scale airstrikes against Hezbollah. This prompted thousands of Lebanese citizens to flee the region, with the main highway near Sidon experiencing the largest exodus since 2006.
While Israel has targeted locations across the south, including the outskirts of major cities like Tyre, residents in Beirut and southern Lebanon reported receiving calls instructing them to move at least one kilometre away from suspected Hezbollah sites. Some residents in Beirut even received evacuation orders via text messages from a Lebanese number.
In retaliation, Hezbollah claimed responsibility for a rocket attack on an Israeli military equipment factory located 60 kilometres inside Israel, near the Megiddo airport, commonly used for civilian flights.
In response to Hezbollah’s rocket assault, the Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) conducted airstrikes on one of Hezbollah’s primary bases, focusing on its weaponry, according to the Times of Israel.
The IDF further stated that Israeli fighter jets struck multiple Hezbollah positions in southern Lebanon, with secondary explosions suggesting the presence of stored weapons in the targeted buildings.
International calls for de-escalation
Amid the extensive bombardment of Hezbollah positions, Ravina Shamdasani, the UN representative in Lebanon, expressed grave concern over the airstrikes and significant civilian casualties.
The United States, European Union, and various regional powers have urged Israel to avoid further escalation. Egypt called for UN intervention in the Israel-Hezbollah conflict, while Saudi Arabia urged restraint, warning of the potential consequences of continued hostilities.
Josep Borrell, the EU’s foreign policy chief, cautioned against a full-scale war, reiterating that heightened tensions would not contribute to regional stability. Similarly, the foreign ministers of the Group of Seven (G7) emphasised that no party stands to gain from escalating conflicts in the Middle East.
Israel open to de-escalation with Hezbollah
Despite the heightened military activity, Israel’s security cabinet remains open to de-escalation. Sources quoted by The Times of Israel suggest it remains uncertain whether Israel will engage in full-scale war with Hezbollah following the latest airstrikes. No new decisions were made during the cabinet discussions, but Israel has indicated its willingness to reduce tensions if Hezbollah agrees to a ceasefire.
Israeli ministers highlighted that, despite the ongoing hostilities, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is still expected to attend the UN General Assembly in New York this week.
Preparing for shifting regional power dynamics
On Tuesday, Prime Minister Netanyahu stated that Israel faces “complex days” ahead. In an address from army headquarters in Tel Aviv, he asserted that Israeli forces are “changing the balance of power in the north” by targeting Hezbollah’s weapon depots. Netanyahu added, “I promised we would change the security balance in the north; that’s exactly what we’re doing.”
If Israel’s campaign against Hezbollah continues, particularly with the targeting of the group’s communication systems, the conflict—exacerbated by Iranian support for Hezbollah—could plunge the Middle East into a new phase of heightened tensions.
