The upcoming 20 October elections in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRI) are not expected to deliver a clear winner, according to Arzu Yılmaz, Associate Professor of Politics and International Relations at the University of Kurdistan Hewlêr in the KRI’s capital city of Erbil (Hewlêr). Yılmaz warns of heightened risks of post-election conflict between the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK), two historically rival factions whose tensions have escalated to dangerous levels.
Speaking to Rojda Abi of Artı Gerçek on Saturday, Yılmaz projected that voter turnout would drop significantly, estimating a participation rate between 50-60%, down from 72% in 2018. “The KDP’s influence is fading, and the PUK is not poised for a major win either,” Yılmaz said. She noted that the KDP is facing a sharp decline in support due to its mishandling of key political crises, while the PUK is struggling to capitalise on these weaknesses.
The two parties, whose rivalry dates back decades, have seen their relationship worsen since the 2017 independence referendum. The PUK’s controversial decision to allow disputed territories to fall under Baghdad’s control further has deepened divisions, and Yılmaz warned that tensions between the parties have reached the point where conflict is a real possibility.
External factors, including the growing tensions between Israel and Iran and the recent agreement for a partial US withdrawal from Iraq, are expected to further influence the region’s already fragile political landscape. Yılmaz highlighted the potential for Iran’s influence in the region to grow if the KDP and PUK manage to form a working relationship within the new parliament.
However, with just weeks to go before the elections, Yılmaz stressed that no party is likely to emerge as the definitive winner. “There is no indication of any party securing a clear victory,” she said, warning that the ability of Kurdistan’s parliament to resolve these conflicts through negotiation, rather than violence, remains in question.
