Iran is facing a decline in the number of its citizens participating in the Arbaeen pilgrimage, despite extensive efforts to leverage the event as a tool for regional influence. By 19 August, 2.2 million pilgrims had entered Iraq for the annual Shiite gathering in Karbala, with 91% of them being Iranian, according to Iraqi official reports.
The Arbaeen pilgrimage, which commemorates the martyrdom of Husayn ibn Ali, the third Shiite Imam, draws millions of Shiite Muslims to Karbala each year during the Safar month (Hijri calendar). As one of the world’s largest religious gatherings, it has become a significant opportunity for Iran, a Shiite-majority state, to project its soft power and strengthen ideological ties across the region.
In recent years, Iran has expanded its efforts to support the pilgrimage, particularly by establishing new routes through Iranian and Iraqi Kurdistan. This initiative aims to integrate Shiite Kurdish regions more closely with the broader Shiite community, distinguishing them from Sunni Kurds in areas like West Azerbaijan and Kurdistan provinces.
Key to this strategy has been the development of border crossings at Tamrchin in Piranshahr and Bashmaq in Marivan, Iranian Kurdistan. The Governor of Kurdistan province recently announced that free transport would be provided for pilgrims from the Bashmaq border to Sulaymaniyah in Iraqi Kurdistan until the day of Arbaeen, underlining Iran’s commitment to facilitating the pilgrimage.
Iran’s leadership views the Arbaeen pilgrimage as a vital instrument in promoting a distinct Shiite Kurdish identity in provinces such as Kermanshah and Ilam. This move is part of a broader effort to consolidate its influence in the region by appealing to Shiite communities.
Since the fall of Saddam Hussein’s regime in 2003, the Arbaeen pilgrimage has grown dramatically, supported by the Iranian government. Participation surged from two million in 2003 to nearly twenty million by 2014, reflecting the significance of the event in Iran’s regional strategy. However, the recent decline in Iranian pilgrims suggests challenges in sustaining this momentum.
