President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has suggested that a Trump victory in the upcoming US elections could favour Turkey, hinting at an authoritarian convergence. Erdoğan addressed journalists on Sunday upon his return to Istanbul after attending the 50th anniversary of Cyprus’s occupation by Turkey.
Erdoğan referred to Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s recent NATO summit remarks about dining with Trump, which drew significant criticism. “This topic is sensitive now, as we have interesting projects ahead,” Erdoğan remarked, hinting at upcoming Turkish political or military actions that could be influenced by the US election outcome.
Highlighting Turkey’s military advancements, Erdoğan noted a surge in European orders for Turkish Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs), specifically mentioning the integration of the advanced Kızılelma UAV. The Kızılelma, translating to ‘Red Apple’, is a symbolic representation of Turkish neo-imperialist aspirations, embodying the nation’s strategic and military ambitions. “Western nations are placing orders for our UAVs. This shift in demand shows how times have changed,” he stated.
Erdoğan linked these developments to the upcoming elections in the United States, expressing confidence in a favourable outcome for Turkey. “I believe the outcome will turn in Turkey’s favour, and this gives me peace,” he said. This perspective aligns with Project 2025, a policy document from the right-wing Heritage Foundation aimed at shaping the next Republican presidency, which envisions stronger ties with Turkey and a reassessment of US support for Kurdish forces in Syria.
Turkey’s cross-border military operations in northern Syria and Iraqi Kurdistan, aiming to consolidate its occupation and thwart Kurdish gains, have not received full support from the US so far. However, Trump was instrumental in enabling Turkey’s incursions, especially in northern Syria, with both the 2018 and 2019 invasions that led to the current status quo occurring during his presidency. Erdoğan’s comments reflect a strategic patience, suggesting that a Trump presidency could further bolster Turkey’s geopolitical stance. “Especially in the context of the US elections, we foresee a decisive role. We will observe the steps to be taken, but I am confident the tide is turning in our favour,” he concluded.
Project 2025, analysed by Medya News writer Sarah Glynn, underscores a right-wing agenda that aligns with Erdoğan’s vision. The document advocates for keeping Turkey in the Western fold, potentially requiring a rethinking of US support for Kurdish forces. This approach could weaken the position of the Democratic Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria (AANES) in negotiations with President Assad, significantly impacting regional dynamics.
Turkey’s military interventions include Operation Olive Branch in 2018 and Operation Peace Spring in 2019, both targeting Kurdish-held territories in northern Syria. These operations sought to establish a buffer zone along the Turkish-Syrian border, displace Kurdish forces and resettle Syrian Arab refugees in the area. The operations have been contentious, as they aimed to dismantle the territorial control of the Kurdish-led People’s Protection Units (YPG), a group that played a crucial role in the US-led coalition’s fight against Islamic State (ISIS) but is viewed by Turkey as a terrorist organisation linked to the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK).
In Iraqi Kurdistan, Turkey has conducted operations such as Operation Claw in 2019, which is still an ongoing campaign, allegedly targeting PKK strongholds in the mountainous regions but encompassing regions without PKK presence. These operations reflect Turkey’s broader strategy of eliminating perceived Kurdish threats beyond its borders and preventing the establishment of a Kurdish autonomous region that could inspire similar aspirations among its Kurdish population.
Despite these aggressive moves, the US response has been ambivalent. While acknowledging Turkey’s security concerns, the US has maintained support for Kurdish forces in Syria, particularly the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), which have been key allies in the fight against ISIS. This dual stance has led to strained relations between the two NATO allies, with Turkey accusing the US of supporting terrorism by backing the YPG.
During Trump’s presidency, there were moments of tacit approval or at least acquiescence towards Turkey’s actions. In October 2019, Trump’s abrupt decision to withdraw US troops from northern Syria effectively greenlit Turkey’s military operation, named ‘Peace Spring’. This move was widely criticised domestically and internationally for abandoning Kurdish allies and destabilising the region. Trump’s actions facilitated Turkey’s advance into Kurdish-controlled areas, leading to significant territorial gains for Turkey and a shift in the regional power balance.
Trump’s policies and decisions during these operations underscored a transactional approach to foreign policy, prioritising US disengagement from conflicts abroad over the strategic alliances that had defined previous administrations. This approach enabled Turkey to pursue its military objectives with greater impunity, altering the dynamics of the Syrian conflict and the broader geopolitical landscape.
