Turkey’s National Security Council (NSC) has called on European governments to “prevent terrorist groups’ attacks” and said failing to prevent the attacks and tolerating terrorist groups “will eventually pose a threat to public order” in their own countries, in what could be interpreted as a veiled threat given recent violence on the streets of Belgium.
Over the years, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has issued several stark warnings to Europe, from seemingly benevolent reminders to outright threats, leveraging Turkey’s pivotal role in the refugee crisis to influence European policies, especially in matters related to Turkey’s military operations and its stance towards Kurdish people.
As such, the NSC’s comments could be understood as hinting at further political violence on European soil driven by Turkish opposition to the Kurdish national identity. The alleged “terrorist attacks” mentioned in the statement refers to incidents triggered by an attack against Kurds celebrating Newroz, or Kurdish New Year, in Belgium on 25 March. The attack was carried out by supporters of the Turkish far-right Grey Wolves organisation. The group, variously characterised as neo-fascist, ultra-nationalist and Islamist, has historically operated as a ‘death squad’ conducting massacres of non-Turkish minorities. In the latest incident, armed gangs of Turkish men terrorised Kurdish families and elderly people in Leuven, Belgium, in a ‘manhunt’ seeking out and beating ethnic Kurds, which left two in critical condition.
However, the NSC’s statement frames the incident in an entirely different light, saying: “The attacks targeting our nationals and diplomatic missions in Europe, carried out by the PKK-PYD [Kurdistan Workers’ Party and Syria-based Democratic Union Party], are being closely monitored. The Council once again reminds the states who hold responsibility for preventing these attacks and punishing the perpetrators that tolerating terrorist groups will eventually pose a threat to their public order and make them the target of these groups.
As a survey of previous incidents in which the Turkish president has issued veiled or open threats to Europe suggests, the Turkish authorities have never been shy of implying that the continent will face threats, political violence and destabilization if its demands are not met.
Opening the Gates to Millions
In March 2020, amidst escalating tensions at the Turkish-Greek border, Erdoğan warned that Europe should expect “millions” of migrants after Turkey opened its borders. This move was perceived by European Union (EU) leaders as an attempt to pressure Europe into supporting Turkey’s military actions against Kurdish-led forces in North and East Syria. The statement sparked a wave of criticism, with Erdoğan accused of using migrants as political pawns in his geopolitical chess game with the EU.
Threats over Support in Syria
Erdoğan’s threats have often been linked to Turkey’s ambitions in Syria. In September 2019, he openly stated that Turkey would “open the gates” for migrants to Europe if the international community did not support the creation of a “refugee safe zone” in northern Syria. Despite the lack of support, Turkey proceeded with its military operation, leading to severe humanitarian conditions in the region, notably in the district of Ras al Ayn (Serê Kaniyê) and Tel Abyad (Girê Spî), which Turkey occupied. This action, and the ensuing hardship faced by Syrians there, challenged Turkey’s narrative of creating a ‘safe zone’ for refugees.
Escalating Rhetoric
The rhetoric escalated in October 2019, when Erdoğan addressed the EU directly, threatening to send 3.6 million refugees to Europe if the EU labeled Turkey’s military operation in Syria as an invasion. This threat underscored the growing tension between Turkey and Europe over the Syrian conflict and the broader refugee crisis.
Direct Threats Over Diplomatic Disputes
Perhaps the most direct threat came in July 2017, when Erdoğan targeted European countries for hindering Turkish ministers’ meetings related to a constitutional referendum. He ominously warned that Europeans might not be able to walk safely on the streets if the current attitude towards Turkey continued. This statement was a clear indication of the escalating diplomatic tensions between Turkey and Europe.
Leveraging Tragedy
In July 2016, following an Islamic State (ISIS) attack in Nice, France, Erdoğan used the tragedy to issue a veiled threat to European countries, criticizing them for their ambiguous stance on terrorism and hinting at their failure to address Kurdish activism. His comments reflected ongoing frustrations with Europe’s handling of security issues and their implications for Turkey.
Warnings on EU-Turkey Relations
Back in May 2016, Erdoğan’s comments on potentially halting the EU-Turkey refugee deal resonated across Europe, showcasing his willingness to challenge and pressure the EU. His statements highlighted the complex and often contentious relationship between Turkey and the EU, with the refugee crisis at the heart of many disputes.
The history of Erdoğan’s warnings to Europe reveals a particular pattern of leveraging Turkey’s strategic position in the refugee crisis to influence European policy and issue veiled and open warnings over Europe’s ‘safety’, particularly regarding Turkey’s military operations and its approach to Kurdish issue. The NSC’s latest warning appears to repeat this pattern, as Turkey aims to exert influence over European policy and frame the violence in Belgium as driven by the Kurdish identity, as opposed to violent attacks by a Turkish-backed paramilitary group.
