Kurdish-led northeastern Syria is a soft spot in the run-up to Turkey’s 14 May elections that could end the 21-year rule of President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and his Justice and Development Party (AKP) because of the American relationships with the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and the People’s Protection Unit (YPG), Middle East expert Steven Cook told FTP in a podcast released on Thursday.
If not for the earthquakes that shook the country and killed more than 50,000 people, the Turkish government would have targeted Greece and Cyprus as well, said Cook, a senior fellow of the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), a US-based think tank.
“But the earthquake happened and so the Turks have backed off, given the extensive help that the Greeks offered to Turkey. So now the focus is on Syria.”
Because of the anti-American and anti-Kurdish sentiment in Turkey, there is no real electoral disadvantage to the Turkish government in killing or trying to kill SDF’s commander-in-chief Mazloum Abdi, or having Americans being in the way and potentially getting hurt or even killed in the process, Cook said, regarding the recent attack that Abdi survived at Sulaymaniyah airport in northern Iraq.
Cook argued that Washington’s silence towards the Turkish government despite the ongoing tensions between the United States and Turkey is due to Congress wanting to avoid doing anything that anybody could use for their electoral advantage.
However, the drone strike on the airport in Sulaymaniyah, where Americans were also present, will lead to an escalation of tensions between Congress and Turkey, according to Cook. “Now that Easter is over, powerful members of Congress are going to have something to say about this,” he said.
Cook avoided making any prediction regarding the upcoming elections other than that it is going to be tough going.
About the suspicions that Erdoğan would try to stay on even if he loses, similar to Donald Trump and Jair Bolsonaro, Cook said, “Of those three, Erdogan has more resources at his disposal in order to make that happen. People need to be very concerned and aware of that.”
“Never count Erdogan out,” Cook warned, stating that a clean victory for Erdoğan’s rival Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, the presidential candidate of the opposition bloc, is the least likely scenario.
“He could win. I think it’s entirely possible that they can recover and dig out a victory. They can rig it enough, or I think the possibility that it’s clear that he loses and doesn’t leave, and claims a victory.”
