A former insider of Turkey’s Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) has warned that tensions within the country’s ruling alliance could spark early elections, as MHP leader Devlet Bahçeli pursues a renewed peace process with Turkey’s Kurdish population. In an interview with journalist Cansu Çamlıbel on Monday, Mümtaz’er Türköne predicted that Bahçeli’s push for a “new republic” uniting Turks and Kurds may force a break with President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, who resists the legal reforms needed for peace.
Türköne, a former academic and nationalist activist, described Bahçeli’s vision as a solution process to integrate Kurds into a unified Turkish nation-state as equal citizens, rather than a distinct ethnic group. “The solution process is the construction of a new nation-state where Turks and Kurds are one nation,” he said. This effort aims to redefine Turkey’s 100-year-old republic to ensure Kurds feel included, but Türköne stressed it hinges on the rule of law. “A ‘terrorism-free Turkey’ cannot succeed without the rule of law,” he stated.
The solution process seeks to end the decades-long conflict with the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), the armed political Kurdish movement designated a terror organisation by the state. Türköne noted that the goals of imprisoned PKK leader Abdullah Öcalan and Bahçeli align. “On the other side of this project is an Abdullah Öcalan factor serving the same goal,” he said.
Türköne claimed that Erdoğan, leader of the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP), seeks to undermine the process to maintain his authoritarian control. “Erdoğan will sabotage the solution process,” he warned, explaining that legal reforms would erode his grip on power. If Erdoğan obstructs the process, Bahçeli may push for early elections by November 2025 to install a government committed to legality, Türköne noted. He also suggested that Bahçeli sees the main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) as a vehicle for restoring the rule of law. “If elections are held and the CHP comes to power, the rule of law will follow naturally,” he stated.
A critical test is the legal case against Ekrem İmamoğlu, İstanbul’s dismissed CHP mayor, whose charges are widely seen as politically motivated. Türköne argued that prosecuting İmamoğlu, especially on terrorism-related allegations tied to “urban consensus” (an electoral agreement between the CHP and the country’s leading pro-Kurdish party), would alienate Kurds and opposition voters, derailing the peace process. “Prosecuting İmamoğlu over urban consensus would destroy the solution process,” he said.
Bahçeli’s 14 April call for a swift resolution to İmamoğlu’s case was, in Türköne’s view, a demand to drop the charges. “Bahçeli says, ‘İmamoğlu’s case is political; it must end quickly’,” he explained. Türköne believes Bahçeli intervened to prevent harsher measures, such as appointing a trustee (a government-appointed administrator) to replace the elected mayor.
Türköne framed the solution process as part of a broader Middle Eastern realignment, driven by Iran’s declining influence and the strategic interests of the United States, United Kingdom, France, and Turkey. According to Türköne, Kurds in Turkey, Syria and Iraq face a choice between aligning with Turkey for stability or risking chaos – such as Syria’s civil war – in a conflict-ridden region. “Kurds had two options: chaos or order,” he said. Türköne claimed that Bahçeli’s initiative offers Kurds legal and democratic assurances to secure their loyalty, aligning with Turkey’s support for extremist groups like Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) in Syria.
The interview revealed growing strains in the AKP–MHP alliance. Bahçeli and Erdoğan do not hold direct talks but only communicate through public statements, Türköne claimed. “I don’t think Bahçeli has any direct contact with Erdoğan,” he stated. This was evident when Erdoğan appointed a trustee to Mardin (Mêrdîn), a Kurdish-majority city, which Türköne saw as a rebuke to Bahçeli’s peace efforts. “Erdoğan’s response to the 22 October move was to appoint a trustee instead of Ahmet Türk,” he noted. Türk, a veteran Kurdish politician and former Mardin mayor, is part of the pro-Kurdish People’s Equality and Democracy (DEM) Party-led İmralı delegation, which facilitates shuttle talks with Öcalan.
Türköne predicted that economic pressures, including high inflation, could force early elections and stabilise markets. “The economy will stabilise the moment an early election is announced,” he said. He also argued that a CHP victory in such a snap election could pave the way for a return to a parliamentary system, weakening Erdoğan’s presidential powers.
Türköne warned that the AKP risks fading like past parties such as the Motherland Party (ANAP) or True Path Party (DYP), due to its reliance on bureaucratic control. “The presidential system has rendered the AKP irrelevant,” he stated.
Türköne’s credibility stems from his past as an MHP activist, his imprisonment for alleged ties to a group designated as terrorist by Turkey (from which Bahçeli helped secure his release in 2020), and his deep understanding of nationalist ideology. While he claims no direct access to the MHP, his analysis draws on Bahçeli’s public statements. “If my writings caused discomfort in Bahçeli’s camp, I would have heard about it,” he said.
