The 14 May elections in Turkey will determine whether the country will “continue along its increasingly authoritarian path or dramatically change course”, the Economist’s intelligence unit said in a report.
“We currently expect the incumbent, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, to win the presidential election either by a narrow margin or by disputing the result,” the prominent journal said. A Haber, which has Erdoğan’s in-laws at the helm, cited the prominent journal as saying, “We expect Recep Tayyip Erdoğan to win the presidential election.”
“If Mr Erdogan manages to remain in power, as we expect, then inflation will remain elevated and the country’s attractiveness to investors will remain limited,” it continued. “In contrast, under a new administration, the country’s attractiveness to investors would improve drastically (although, arguably, from a low base).”
“The main opposition challenger, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, is now leading in opinion polls, and the risk of Mr Erdogan being defeated, after more than two decades of rule, is high,” said the Economist. The journal saying, “ousting (Erdoğan) remains a tall order”, was reflected in A Haber’s coverage as, “While the opposition has a historic chance to defeat Erdoğan, it remains very difficult, even close to impossible.”
An Erdoğan win would mean Turkey’s further drift away from Europe and the United States, while the opposition would “return to economic orthodoxy and seek to rebuild Turkey’s ties to Western institutions” after a victory, the Economist said.
Turkey’s central bank “is not independent”, it added, and said the economic growth rate was “unsustainable”.
“Under Mr Erdogan’s rule, Turkey’s deepening ties with Russia have created frictions with the country’s traditional Western allies,” the Economist said. “While the Economist or Western states have criticised Turkey’s role as mediator in the Russia-Ukraine war, this role had an important impact on resolving important crises in the world, starting with the grain shortage,” A Haber responded.
“NATO members would consider an opposition victory as a positive after Mr Erdogan’s disruptive influence in global affairs,” the Economist continued. According to the journal, Turkey’s traditional foreign policy in Cyprus and Greece would be unlikely to change, as would the balanced relationship with Russia and China. The country’s stance on Syria and the Kurdish issue would “probably remain a strong irritant” with Washington, it said, but still, “there would be a window of opportunity for substantial change” in relations with the West.
Erdoğan’s defeat would “reaffirm Turkey’s bid to become an EU member and enhance Turkey’s democratic credentials”, it said.
The report was completed before the pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP) announced its open support for the opposition candidate Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, who has led the main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) since 2010 but has not previously run against Erdoğan.
The highest vote a CHP-backed candidate won against Erdoğan in presidential elections was 2014’s 38.44% by Ekmeleddin İhsanoğlu. In the same elections, HDP candidate Selahattin Demirtaş, a former co-chair of the party who is currently jailed on what the European Court of Human Rights (ECHR) has called politically motivated charges, won 9.76%.
Current opinion polls show Kılıçdaroğlu at a “marginal lead” over Erdoğan, the Economist said. As of 23 March, leading Turkish pollster Metropoll shows 42% to Erdoğan and 44.6% to Kılıçdaroğlu, with a further 5.1% undecided and 5.9% protest votes.
“The election will be closely fought,” the Economist said. “Mr Erdogan will benefit from his incumbent advantage, his personal standing, core conservative support, extensive control over public resources and public institutions, and influence over the media and the electoral authorities.”
Erdoğan’s Justice and Development Party’s (AKP) “capture of the political institutions, the bureaucracy and the judiciary is deep and would be difficult to dismantle”, the journal said. The opposition “would need to tread carefully” regarding the economy, it added.
