Turkey’s recent diplomatic and military activities in Iraq and its Kurdistan Region indicate preparations for a possible extensive military operation, asserted Zeyneb Murad, Co-chair of the Kurdistan National Congress (KNK). Speaking to Mezopotamya Agency’s Zeynep Durgut on Sunday, Murad suggested that these actions hint at “a search for new alliances and preparations for a comprehensive operation”.
Murad noted that since 17 April 2022, Turkey has initiated assaults on the Zap, Metîna and Avaşîn areas in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRI). Despite utilising advanced drone and fighter jet technology and receiving backing from the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP), the governing party of the Region, Turkey’s military efforts have not met their objectives. This lack of success has prompted Turkey to enhance its diplomatic engagements with both Iraq’s central government and the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG).
The coalition success of the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) in December’s provincial council elections in Kirkuk, in which it secured five seats, potentially leading to the appointment of a Kurdish governor, is reported to have unsettled Turkey. A delegation led by the head of Turkey’s National Intelligence Organisation (MİT) İbrahim Kalın visited Iraq last month for talks, followed by a notable meeting with the KDP’s President Masoud Barzani on 28 January, which resulted in discussions between the KDP and the PUK on the governance of Kirkuk being halted.
Subsequent visits to Iraq and the KRI by Turkish officials including Defence Minister Yaşar Güler and Chief of General Staff General Metin Gürak, and the recent meeting of Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan with KRG President Nechirvan Barzani at the 60th Munich Security Conference, indicate a further step up in diplomatic efforts.
Murad criticised the silence of the KRG in the face of the Turkish attacks in the KRI, arguing that it compromises the status of the Kurds. She highlighted the potential for this to invite further interventions in the region, noting recent pressures and attacks from Iran on the KRI and on political parties in Eastern/Iranian Kurdistan (Rojhilatê Kurdistanê).
The intensified diplomatic exchanges between Ankara and Erbil are seen by Murad as preparations for a significant assault by Turkey, which is possibly seeking official support from the Iraqi central and Kurdish regional governments. Despite the lack of confirmation of any formal alliance, the ongoing interactions raise suspicions about Turkey’s intentions towards the Kurds, amid internal Kurdish political divisions that Murad warns could undermine Kurdish gains, particularly in disputed areas like Kirkuk.