After Russia announced on Monday that they are to recognise the breakaway ‘republics’ in Donetsk and Luhansk, eastern Ukraine, and that they are going to send ‘peace troops’ into the region, the United Nations (UN) Security Council was called for an emergency meeting to discuss the latest situation.
Earlier, state representatives had made assertions about their stance on the issue, which has now turned into a full blown international crisis, during the 58th Munich Security Conference on Saturday in Munich, Germany.
The conference was attended by many states leaders including Kamala Harris, the vice president of the US, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, Chinese Foreign Minister Vang Yi, and Boris Johnson, the prime minister of the United Kingdom (UK).
Indicating that freedom of expression, the free will of the people and protection of minorities to secure justice and ensure the stability of states in the long term, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said:
“States who respect the honour of humanity are stronger than the ones who have no respect for humanity. The will for living a fair, free and equal life is not particular to Westerners, but is a humane and universal will.”
Scholz added that it will not be a single or double-polar world in the 21st century, but instead there are going to be numerous powerhouses, and that he does not see problems in this.
“No state should be the back garden of another,” he said. “When the multi-polar system is threatened and human rights are violated, we are going to give the necessary response.”
He also warned the Russian president Vladimir Putin, saying, “A military offensive in Ukraine would be a big mistake.”
The Chinese foreign minister who joined the conference remotely, criticised the US, describing it as ‘a super power reigniting the Cold War era by building up tension between blocks.’
He went on to say that such an attitude could not be tolerated and it was in ‘contradiction with the course of history.’
What might the impact of the crisis be on Turkey?
While the Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan said on Tuesday that Russia’s decision to recognise breakaway republics was ‘unacceptable’, many now wonder how a deepening crisis would likely effect Turkey, a NATO member with incredibly strong economic ties with Russia.
As Turkey is becoming more and more dependent on strategic imported goods and materials from Russia, its agricultural imported goods from Russia have been getting almost as crucial as its imported energy in recent years.
Turkey currently imports 40 percent of its natural gas consumption, and 25 percent of its oil consumption from Russia, and its first nuclear power plant is in the process of construction by Russian companies, meaning it has an energy dependency on its northern neighbour.
But Turkey is also the primary buyer of Russian wheat, that was 4.5 million metric tonnes (MT) in 2021.
It’s also ranked first in sunflower oil imports from Russia, having increased imported quotas by 42% in 2021, amounting to 1.1 billion US dollars.
Turkey tripled its importation of Russian barley in 2021 to 1.2 million MT and paid over 300 million US dollars for it.
Apart from its strategic energy and food exports to Turkey, Russia is ranked the first country in Turkey’s tourism revenues which constitute an important part of the Turkish economy and is an invaluable source for generating foreign currency funds especially in a time of foreign currency crisis.
Possible impacts on military operations
Another sphere of interaction between Russia and Turkey is the military operations or interventions both countries are involved in, including Syria, Libya and Nagorno-Karabakh.
Turkey’s position as an occupying force in northeast Syria is enabled in the most part by Russia’s green-light for Turkey’s use of the airspace, namely airstrikes that tips the scales in Turkey’s favour in its attacks targeting the Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria (AANES).
So it’s only natural now that people wonder what the reaction of the Turkish political administration to Russia’s moves in eastern Ukraine is going to be, and whether any action will follow the official rhetoric.