Cafer Tar
“It is noteworthy that Erdoğan persisted in bringing the discussion round to the new constitution at the opening of the Turkish Parliament a few days ago. He is not interested in whether the Presidential Government System is working or not. He is actually looking for ways to maintain his rule, because Erdoğan knows better than anyone the cost of losing power,” writes Cafer Tar for Özgür Politika.
“The Ottoman game does not end!” is a common phrase among the people. People actually reveal their distrust of the state with such a phrase. They are right! Those who have ever gripped power in these lands, have tried all possible ways to achieve their goals.
Continuing the state tradition based on conspiracy, the Justice and Development Party (AKP) – Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) alliance is also in a hurry to play their game against our people and to extend their time to rule the country for as long as they can. Erdoğan knows the end of the road is coming. His insistence on the new constitution is suggestive of a new Ottoman game.
It is noteworthy that Erdoğan persisted in bringing the discussion round to the new constitution at the opening of the Turkish Parliament a few days ago. He is not interested in whether the Presidential Government System is working or not. He is actually looking for the ways to maintain his rule, because Erdoğan knows better than anyone the cost of losing its power.
With the current “50+1” election system Erdoğan knows that he will not be elected again and also that he will never get votes from the Kurds again. For that reason, he has no option but to revise the “50+1” system, which has turned into a major obstacle to his re-election.
The insistence of the MHP on a “constitutional revision” is based on this concern; apart from this, neither the MHP nor the AKP have any discomfort with the current regime or the Constitution; but they want to manipulate the opposition using traditional Ottoman game tactics.
The People’s Alliance (referring to the alliance of the AKP and the MHP), which has 337 seats in the parliament, does not have a big enough majority to pass the constitutional amendment. Their insistence on the new constitution despite the insufficient number of seats has been considered as a possible revision to the presidential system.
But in fact, the purpose of the AKP-MHP alliance goes far beyond this; they want to direct the opposition towards a possible “new constitution”, to change the “50+1” electoral system, and to create a new election system, in which whoever gets the most votes will be able to become the President.
However, they know that other political parties will not agree to this. Therefore, they zare not working on the new constitution through a Constitution Reconciliation Commission, in which all parties participate equally as before. They know that changing the “50+1″ system in the commission will lead the public to question their credibility.
Instead, Erdoğan is working on a joint constitutional amendment with the MHP. According to this, the constitutional amendment that is to be prepared at the end of this process will be brought to the opposition and the amendment will be submitted to the Assembly even if the opposition parties object to it.
The People’s Alliance is playing a new Ottoman game here as well, knowing that opposition will not say ”yes” to a new constitutional amendment from the AKP-MHP alliance. In that case, a secret ballot will be required in order for the new constitutional amendment to be passed by the Parliament. It is thought that some opposition deputies may be persuaded to vote for the new constitution in return for a “bribe”.
This possibility should not be underestimated considering the tradition that has been prevalent in Turkish parliamentary history. We don’t know how many opposition votes will be lost, but we can foresee that some opposition parties MPs will say ”yes” to the new constitution in return for privileges they hope to get from the government.
The government hopes to achieve its goal in this way; If the Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP) is neutralised, then the People’s Alliance may actually have a chance. If this happens, a simple majority will be enough to win the elections.
At this point, the attitude of the Kurds, and the HDP, has been very important; with their recent declaration, the HDP ruined the game plan of the AKP-MHP alliance by separating the parliamentary elections from the presidential elections.
Thus, it became clear once again that the HDP and the Kurds are the main players in Turkey; the outcome will be determined by the Kurds! The Kurds made their choice in favour of freedom and democracy from the beginning; in this choice there is no room for Erdoğan, who claims, “There is no Kurdish question in Turkey.”
