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Aykan Sever
Russia is trying to manage its interests in Syria without completely destroying its relations with Turkey and Iran, because it needs these relationships to fight any resistance that may occur in the international arena, particularly regarding Idlib, writes Aykan Sever for Yeni Ozgur Politika.
Until Erdoğan’s last visit to the US, I thought that he was aware that his statements were lies and he was in fully aware of what he was saying. He was saying, ‘this is good, that is good’ about his relations with Biden and the US… However, he lost his temper less than 24 hours after he made those statements. If he had not believed in what he was saying, he would not have got angry. It is not surprising; he was not even treated as a dictator would be; none of those “infidels” even bothered to greet him; even those closest to him ignored him.
Later, as though unaware of what he was doing, he started being offensive about his “friend” Putin. The Moscow administration, which since the downing of the Russian plane in 2015 has taken hold of Erdoğan and subjected him to whatever they want, including reprimands, mockery and bombings in Syria, issued a summons to him.
Not only could our famous dictator not say, “I’m not coming”, but he also had to say, “Putin is my loyal friend”. We are faced with a government that is very confused about what to do in foreign policy and no longer has the ability to develop even short-term policies. Naturally, the powers that form the main actors in the war of re-allocation will try to evaluate this situation in their favour.
For some time, Russia has been seeking to move forward together with the US and Israel regarding Syria. This is not a unilateral initiative. These policies progressed at the last UN summit when Syrian Foreign Minister Miktad met with the foreign ministers of Egypt, Jordan, Tunisia, Oman, Iraq, and Mauritania.
Needless to say, Jordan’s friendly approaches are made with U.S. permission. The Jaber Border Crossing between the two countries, which has been closed for some time, is expected to reopen today after four ministers from the Damascus administration visited Amman this week.
Russia is trying to manage this process without completely destroying its relations with Turkey and Iran, because it needs these to break any resistance that may occur in the international arena, particularly regarding Idlib.
Despite all its pleading regarding Syria, not only has Turkey not received US support, but there are agreements signed by the Turkish Republic on Idlib within the framework of Astana which rub this in, and there are also the words, “We respect the territorial integrity of Syria”, which Turkey often has to repeat, although it does not want to.
In summary, today’s meeting will force Turkey to step back in Idlib, although Russia needs to maintain its fragile dependency relations with Turkey. If the United States has not frightened Erdoğan enough with its announcements of new sanctions, there is also the purchase of a second batch of S-400s. This is likely to trigger new internal conflicts.
Another fact that the unrecognised imperialist Turkey does not grasp is its decreasing geopolitical importance.
The Biden administration has been forced to increase its policy of encircling China and forcing it into a heated conflict in the postmodern war of re-allocation. Biden reserves the weight of his power for shaping the Pacific line. With this in mind, Biden hosted the leaders of India, Australia, and Japan, known as the “Quad,” at the White House last week, after the Australia-UK-US pact (AUKUS). At the heart of the meeting was the balance of power against China, the quest to establish a Pacific NATO. It is not certain how far they can get towards attaining their goal. The stance of the Indian government remains indecisive.
As the United States expands its war zone toward the Pacific, it aims to block the South China Sea, China’s main trade corridor. Of course, Central Asia and the Middle East are not completely abandoned, trustees are sought.
It seems that with a gradual withdrawal in the Middle East, Iraq, Lebanon, and Libya are likely to be left to France. Syria, on the other hand, maybe left to the initiative of Russia and Israel. Afghanistan was to be entrusted to Turkey, but the dictator’s braggadocio was not sufficient to the task.
The main actors of the re-allocation war are free to make their calculations. It is obvious that the mathematics of the rulers include no goodwill for the future of humankind. But things have not always been the way they are currently set, and they won’t be. The day of the oppressed will come too…
