A recent survey reveals that the main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) is leading in six of seven major Turkish cities, ahead of a potential general election, with the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) holding ground only in Malatya.
The survey, conducted by ORC Research between 2 May and 8 May, polled voters in İstanbul, Ankara, İzmir, Antalya, Adana, Mersin and Malatya, with sample sizes ranging from 1,580 to 2,910 participants per city. It asked respondents which party they would vote for if a general election were held on a Sunday. The results indicate a shift in voter sentiment since the last general election on 14 May 2023, particularly in urban areas.
In İstanbul, the CHP secured 34.1% of the vote, surpassing the AKP’s 30.2%. This marks a notable increase from 2023, when the CHP garnered 28.33% and the AKP led with 36.06%. İzmir showed the widest gap, with the CHP at 43.1%—nearly double the AKP’s 21.6%. The CHP also led in Ankara (34.8%), Antalya (37.3%), Adana (32.8%) and Mersin (36.0%), reflecting gains of 4 to 5 points in each city compared to 2023.
Malatya was the exception, where the AKP maintained a lead with 36.5%, though this was a significant drop from 45.19% in 2023. The CHP followed in Malatya with 25.5%, up from 21.60% two years ago.
The survey highlights a decline for the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), a key ally of the AKP in the People’s Alliance coalition. The MHP saw its support decrease across all cities, with its highest share in Adana at 8.5%, down from 11.03% in 2023. Similarly, the Good Party (İYİ), part of the opposition Nation Alliance with the CHP in past elections, experienced sharp declines, dropping to 7.1% in İzmir from 11.39% in 2023.
The pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Equality and Democracy (DEM) Party, a successor to the Green Left Party (Yeşil Sol) and the Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP), maintained stable support. Its strongest showing was in Mersin at 12.0%, slightly down from 13.23% in 2023.
Smaller parties, such as the Islamist New Welfare Party (YRP) and ultra-nationalist Victory Party (ZP), showed modest gains in some cities, with ZP reaching 4.7% in Ankara, up from 3.33%.
ORC Research noted that the survey reflects growing urban support for the CHP, likely driven by economic challenges and dissatisfaction with the AKP’s governance. Turkey has faced high inflation and currency depreciation in recent years, issues that have dominated political discourse.
The results come amid speculation on an early general election, though none has been officially scheduled. The AKP, led by President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, has governed Turkey since 2002, but recent local elections in 2024 saw the CHP win key municipalities, including İstanbul and Ankara. Political analysts suggest that these survey results could signal further challenges for the AKP if national elections are called.
