European countries should be prepared for a turbulent period in Turkey before and after the 14 May elections, Luigi Scazzieri from the Centre for European Reform told Deutsche Welle Turkish on Saturday.
EU members should be ready to make critical decisions in case of widespread manipulations in elections or the possibility of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan denying an election defeat, said Scazzieri, an expert on security and defence policies.
“As long as Erdoğan remains in office, it is possible that we will witness worse turbulence in EU-Turkish relations,” the analyst said, making specific reference to the Erdoğan government’s opposition to Sweden’s NATO membership bid.
“The ending of Turkey’s membership process, or sanctions against key Turkish officials could be put forward,” Scazzieri said when asked about possible EU reactions in case Erdoğan refuses to step down even if he loses the presidential race on 14 May.
“In my opinion, there will initially be a serious division inside the EU over this issue, and then a consensus will be achieved: Turkey’s full membership negotiations will be ended,” the analyst said of this scenario.
“But let’s say Erdoğan wins the elections fairly. I do not think Turkey can maintain its EU candidate status for a long time in a Turkey where Erdoğan is in power,” he said.
However, an election victory for Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, the leader of the main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) and the Turkish opposition’s presidential candidate, could create a totally different impact on EU-Turkey relations, according to Scazzieri.
“An election victory for the opposition candidate Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu will decrease the tensions in EU-Turkey relations. It will pave the way for a strengthened EU-Turkey partnership,” he told DW.
If Kılıçdaroğlu comes to power on 14 May, the European bloc should re-establish partnership and trust with Turkey through political dialogue at every level and pool resources to help Turkey overcome its economic problems, said Scazzieri.
In the medium-run, the EU should focus on ensuring visa-free travel to European countries for Turkish citizens and starting negotiations towards updating the Customs Union between the EU and Turkey, he added.
But at the moment, EU countries should concentrate on the fairness of Turkey’s elections, the analyst said.
“They should be very careful. Because if they speak up, they might look like they are interfering in elections. But emphasis should be on fair elections and the requisite messages should be sent through diplomatic channels by EU diplomats behind the scenes,” he said.
