“I think that Turkey will not enter the ‘New Cold War’ under the leadership of Erdoğan after the NATO Summit. Erdoğan will slowly be dragged into retirement in the Palace of Sultan Mehmed VI before the next general election,” writes Veysi Sarısözen for Yeni Özgür Politika.
Turkey’s president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan will “discuss” a number of issues with US president Joe Biden at the NATO Summit.
Let me say in advance, these “discussions” will not be between two equal parties. Not because the US is “global” and Turkey “regional”. But because Turkey was defeated in and withdrew from the Rojava conflict it entered into in 2010. Erdogan will sit at the NATO table as “defeated” and there are never equal discussions between the “victors” and the “defeated” at the NATO table.
It is imperative that Erdoğan, as a “defeated” Commander-in-Chief, discuss the “surrender agreement.” It was he who entered the war, and he who lost. Just like Sultan Mehmed VI Vahideddin (the last Sultan of the Ottoman Empire).Yes, he will sit at the table. But what will he say?
What did Vahdettin say? “As long as you don’t touch my Sultanate, and don’t support Kemal (Mustafa Kemal Atatürk) and his gangs, who want to divide the Ottomans, I’ll give you whatever you like.” … And Erdoğan will say the same thing: “As long as you don’t touch my government, and don’t support the Kurdistan Workers’Party – People’s Defence Units’ (PKK-YPG) ‘terrorism,’ I’ll give you whatever you like.”
Akar, the Turkish Minister for War, stated this clearly recently. I quote: “The greatest problem between Turkey and the US is not the F-35, nor the S-400, nor anything else. The greatest problem is the issue of the PKK/YPG terrorist organisation. Problems thrown on the table can be sorted one way or another, but there is one problem we will be unable to solve. It is the PKK, which is aiming at our nation, our oneness, our unity, and the YPG, which is no different to the PKK.”
As you see, he virtually states that if the US doesn’t support the YPG, there will be no further problems between ourselves and the US.
Will there be no more problems?
What about Cyprus? What about Northern Syria? What about Libya? What about Nagorno-Karabakh? What about the increasing closeness with China? What about the evasion of Iranian sanctions by the Turkish HalkBank?
What then will the regime do about Cyprus? Will it give up on the “two state solution?” By using the term “anything else,” Akar has bracketed all these problems together and announced that they are going to take a step back on all of them in Brussels.
What has he done?
He has come forward as a candidate for an alternative government. He has sent the message to the US that he is the candidate to solve “anything else” there might be, other than the YPG.
When is he sending this message?
While Erdoğan is “down.” When he has conceded defeat in the face of Peker’s revelations. Because both Akar and the others that who are preparing for the time after Erdoğan know this.
No matter what concessions Erdoğan makes, no matter how many signatures he adds to a treaty worse than the Treaty of Sevres, Erdoğan is now useless to the US. Erdoğan is no more a useful tool to NATO in the “New Cold War”. In its ideological Cold War being waged under the name of “human rights and democracy” against Moscow and Beijing, Erdoğan has became an obstacle for the US. If Biden shouts, “Human Rights!” at Moscow, Putin will point to Erdoğan and say, “Sort your own house out first!”
What about Akar?
He is both “civilian” and “military” … But he too has a “problem” with the US. The problem of cleansing the NATO-supporting officers from the army. Leave aside what is discussed at the “diplomatic table” at the NATO summit, this problem remains on the Penatagon table and this is the Akar problem. This is why Akar says to the US and NATO, “Don’t supply ammunition to the YPG and I will sort out all other problems” – because he has to.
I am sure that when US old hands talk with Erdoğan, they study Akar from the corners of their eyes. I would also say that they talk among themselves saying, “He doesn’t look much like our men, but there are similarities.”
There is a “silence” that I have noticed: Why are the generals and colonels who were thrown in prison on 15 July 2016 so quiet? What are they waiting for? I don’t know, but I can guess. I think they are waiting for Akar and the US to solve all the “anything else” problems, apart from that of the YPG.
In brief: A roadmap will be drawn up for the New Cold War at the NATO summit. The US will try to sort out its problems with the European NATO alliance. Also on the table will the problem of Turkey.
Without Turkey, which is right under Russia’s nose, there would be holes in the wall of the “Cold War.” So, in fact, the problem on the table is not the problem of Turkey, but the problem of Erdoğan.
If you were in the position of the CIA or the Pentagon, how would you solve this problem on the table?
You would look first at the Military Council. You would wait to see who from the Council would get stronger and climb up. If Akar were to cleanse it of the Eurasia supporters, you would applaud him …
15 July happened under Erdoğan.
I think that Turkey will not enter the “New Cold War” under the leadership of Erdoğan after the NATO Summit. Erdoğan will slowly be dragged into retirement in the Palace of Sultan Mehmed VI before the next general election.
Since the Minister of Interior Soylu has been dispensed with, think about the rest for yourselves. And, in such a future, it is likely that Kılıçdaroğlu (leader of the main opposition Republican People’s Party, CHP) will be the main player. He is standing, waiting for the train to the TBMM (the Grand National Assembly of Turkey).
Let us now ask the Kemalist and the liberalist and the freedomist Muslim: Is it in Turkey’s interests to set up good relations with Rojava, bring back to life the “solution” process and secure peace, or to surrender to the US and join the Cold War once again?
Make a decision. Because, on the way to the Cold War, you will lose hold of the things that matter. Then, you will weep because Russia and China will be supporting the PKK and the YPG.