Zegrus Enderyari
The explosion on 26 April at Shahid Rajaee Port, one of Iran’s most important ports in the Persian Gulf and a key hub in the North-South Transport Corridor, has consequences that extend beyond technical and operational dimensions, potentially developing into a geopolitical crisis. Due to the strategic position of Shahid Rajaee in regional trade and transit, this incident could bring about significant changes in Iran’s politics, economy and influence. The explosion has disrupted the flow of goods in the corridor and may lead to a decrease in trust from foreign partners, as well as strengthening rival corridors.
The North-South Corridor, an international transit route that begins at Iran’s southern ports (such as Shahid Rajaee and Chabahar), connects to Russia, Central Asia, and Europe via road, rail, and sea. This corridor was designed to reduce transportation time and costs between India, Iran, Russia and Europe, with Shahid Rajaee being a key link due to its high capacity and strategic location in the Persian Gulf.
The importance of the North-South Corridor has grown, especially after the Ukraine War and Russia’s transit restrictions.
Was it sabotage?
Given Iran’s previous history of infrastructure sabotage (such as the explosion at the Natanz facility), some speculations suggest foreign involvement in the Shahid Rajaee explosion. Due to its pivotal role in connecting the North-South corridor and its importance in both non-oil and oil trade for Iran, Shahid Rajaee is a natural target for sabotage.
Potential actors involved in any such sabotage could include:
• Israel (aiming to weaken Iran’s economic and geostrategic influence)
• Proxy groups for rivals in the region
• Arab countries competing with Iran in transit
The goal of such sabotage would be to undermine Iran’s position in regional affairs, increase distrust among foreign investors, and shift the balance of competition in favour of rival ports.
Political, economic and geopolitical impacts
Damage to Iran’s transit position
Shahid Rajaee handles over 85% of container transport and 70% of cargo transit in Iran. The explosion severely disrupts these operations, affecting the North-South Corridor, which is considered a competitor to the traditional route through the Suez Canal, and its disruption may force Iran’s partners, such as India, Russia and Kazakhstan, to seek alternative routes.
Opportunities for rival ports in the region
Disruption at the Port of Shahid Rajaee can strengthen the position of rival ports in neighbouring countries:
◦ Fao (Iraq): Iraq is developing the port of Fao and connecting it to Turkey and Europe through the corridor known as the Iraq Development Road, aiming to gain a position equal to or even superior to Iran’s southern ports. The explosion at Shahid Rajaee gives Fao an opportunity to capture more regional transit.
◦ Jebel Ali (UAE): Jebel Ali is the largest and most advanced port in the Middle East and it could enhance its role as a regional transit hub, especially with connections to the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC) that links India to Europe via the UAE, Saudi Arabia and Israel.
◦ Karachi and Gwadar (Pakistan): The port of Karachi, with its high capacity and strong rail and road connections to Afghanistan and Central Asia, could attract some of Iran’s transit loads, while that of Gwadar, part of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), is also aiming to gain a share of regional transit.
Threat to Iran’s economic influence
Over the years, Iran has sought to cement its role as a transit chokepoint in Eurasia using its prime geographical location (connecting the Persian Gulf to Central Asia, the Caucasus, Russia and Europe).
However, with this explosion:
◦ Iran’s position in the North-South Corridor (INSTC) is weakened.
◦ Cooperation projects with India (such as the development of Chabahar Port) become uncertain.
◦ Rail connectivity projects linking Iran to the Caucasus and Russia (such as the Rasht-Astara railway) may lose value.
◦ Chinese interest in participating in Iran’s transit projects under the Belt and Road initiative may decrease.
Impact on other regional corridors
The explosion at Shahid Rajaee could lead to changes in regional corridor dynamics:
◦ IMEC: This corridor, starting from India and passing through the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Israel to Europe, becomes more attractive in the absence of effective operation at Iranian ports.
◦ CPEC: China may promote Gwadar port as a substitute for part of its trade with West Asia and Africa.
◦ Iraq Development Road corridor: The strategic project connecting Port Fao to Turkey and then to Europe – and supported by European companies like Daewoo – will gain importance as Iran’s ports decrease in role.
◦ Trans-Afghanistan Pipeline (TAPI) corridor: Although primarily a gas pipeline project, Karachi port might play a larger logistical role.
Internal Economic and Political Instability
Increased transportation costs, reduced foreign currency income, pressure on the supply chains of imported goods and rising social discontent may be short-term outcomes of this explosion. Alongside existing sanctions, such shocks would severely weaken Iran’s economic resilience, potentially leading to greater internal dissatisfaction.
Increased International Pressure
If foreign sabotage is confirmed, Iran may face additional challenges in responding on the international stage. However, even without official confirmation, this incident increases perceived insecurity in Iran’s ports and transit routes, raising the costs of investment and transportation insurance.
In conclusion, the explosion at Shahid Rajaee, at a critical moment when Iran was attempting to solidify its role in large regional transit projects, has dealt a heavy blow to Iran’s geoeconomic prospects. The incident could:
• Weaken Iran’s regional influence in transport and transit
• Threaten foreign investments in Iran’s port and transport projects
• Shift competition towards rival ports like Fao, Jebel Ali, Karachi and Gwadar
• Strengthen alternative corridors such as IMEC or the Iraq Development Road
The explosion, which directly affects one of Iran’s most critical commercial and transit chokepoints, is likely to provide opportunities for rivals in the region, including Turkey and Israel, to play a more prominent role in redefining regional transit and geopolitical corridors, potentially sidelining Iran. Although the explosion may appear to be an economic incident, its consequences could also have deep political and geopolitical ramifications. If Iran cannot quickly recover from this loss, competitors like Turkey and Israel could push it out of regional transit and geopolitical equations, or at least significantly diminish its role.
Zegrus Enderyari is a Kurdish activist from Iranian Kurdistan and a regular contributor to Medya News.
