Medya News
Daily Review
Breaking News
Subscribe
  • Home
  • All News
  • Opinion
  • Kurdistan
  • Women
  • Politics
  • Human Rights
  • More
    • Audio Articles
    • Economy
    • Culture & Art
    • Ecology
    • Newsletter
    • Daily Review
Youtube
PODCAST
No Result
View All Result
  • Home
  • All News
  • Opinion
  • Kurdistan
  • Women
  • Politics
  • Human Rights
  • More
    • Audio Articles
    • Economy
    • Culture & Art
    • Ecology
    • Newsletter
    • Daily Review
Youtube
PODCAST
No Result
View All Result
Medya News

Kurdish votes likely to tip balance in Turkey’s elections: Int’l media

International analysts agree that the upcoming elections are a turning point for Turkey and that President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s 20 years of reign may come to an end in May. According to the recent polls and latest developments, the Kurdish votes will likely win the election for the opposition.

9:20 am 26/03/2023
A A
Kurdish votes likely to tip balance in Turkey’s elections: Int’l media
Share post

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and his Justice and Development Party (AKP), in their weakest-ever period, could lose two decades of power to a mild-mannered opposition leader with the support of the Kurds, international analysts say.

The Table of Six, an alliance of the six diverse opposition parties, designated Turkey’s main opposition leader Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, a member of the Alevi minority from the Kurdish majority eastern province of Tunceli (Dersim), as their presidential candidate to face the ‘weaker than ever Erdoğan’ in the election scheduled for 14 May, France24 reported.

In an analysis based on the latest polls, Reuters stated that Kılıçdaroğlu is leading against Erdoğan by more than 10 percentage points ahead of elections.

There are several different factors that caused the Erdoğan government to lose power. The economic crisis in the country and the authorities’ failed response to the 6 February earthquakes are evaluated by the international media as the two most important reasons that led to a decline in voters’ support to Erdoğan.

Failures in earthquake response

Government officials argue that all services in the disaster area are adequate, yet the country’s interior minister only a day ago called on citizens to donate tea, sugar, and slippers to earthquake victims.

The government received nationwide backlash after twin earthquakes last month caused great destruction and killed nearly 48,000 people in ten provinces in the south and southeast of Turkey, where the Kurds and Alevis are densely populated.

While Erdoğan’s zoning amnesties allowed construction projects to proceed without fulfilling the necessary safety requirements, as a result of AKP’s policy of economic growth based on the construction boom, inadequate supervision in the construction sector also caused many new buildings that were supposed to comply with strong construction rules to collapse.

In addition, as the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) writes, some of Erdoğan’s “biggest rivals” filling the gaps in the government’s response have also created a much tougher situation for the president ahead of elections.

“Civil-society groups, political parties and opposition-run municipal governments have become surrogate governments in many of the worst-hit areas, handing out food and clothing, setting up makeshift medical centres, collecting garbage, fighting fires and repairing roads in cities that so far have received little aid from the central government,” the WSJ said.

It is also worth noting that a significant part of the groups that stepped in to help quake-affected people after the collapse of vital state services were oppressed under Erdoğan’s rule that jailed political opponents and civil-society leaders.

While the failures of the government authorities in earthquake response became a vulnerability for Erdoğan, “many residents still in the disaster zone say they are waiting for basic services such as electricity and water, and for supplies like food and sanitation products,” says the WSJ.

Erdoğan, on the other hand, admitted that they were insufficient in the first day’s response to the earthquake because “the scale of the disaster was too much for any government to handle”, but he said that, after the first day, the government mobilised the full extent of its resources. Government officials argue that all services in the disaster area are adequate, yet the country’s interior minister only a day ago called on citizens to donate tea, sugar, and slippers to earthquake victims.

In fact, when many frustrated earthquake survivors in Hatay, one of the provinces that suffered the most and received aid the least, recently announced and protested on social media that there was no clean water in the region, Turkish Interior Minister Süleyman Soylu said that the claim was an organised effort of speculation, adding that there was no lack of clean water in Hatay, and the “necessary criminal complaints” were made regarding the social media accounts that produce the claim.

The economic crisis as a result of the government’s low-interest policy

With the opposition leader’s promise to reverse Erdogan’s policies, investors may see “lots of potential in Turkey’s long-shunned bond market, if only Erdoğan loses an election for the first time in 20 years.”

The devastating earthquakes had additional negative effects on the country’s already-slowing economy as well. The total cost of the disaster is $84.1 million, Turkish Enterprise and Business Confederation estimate.

“The next government, whoever forms it, must face the worst inflation in decades and a record trade deficit,” says the Spectator. Economists forecast that before any hope of recovery, the Turkish economy will only get worse because of its structural weakness.

“Guided by Erdogan’s unorthodox belief that high-interest rates fuel inflation – although economic textbooks say the opposite is true – Turkey’s central bank has kept interest rates artificially low since 2018,” explains Bloomberg. “The side effects of that policy, which have included soaring inflation, a weak currency and dwindling appeal for lira-denominated instruments, have sent foreigners running,” it added.

However, with the opposition leader’s promise to reverse Erdogan’s policies, investors may see “lots of potential in Turkey’s long-shunned bond market, if only Erdoğan loses an election for the first time in 20 years,” reports Bloomberg, citing a senior official from one of the world’s largest investment companies with 30 million investors.

Meanwhile, analysts also agree that Erdoğan will try to find a way to improve the economic conditions in the country, albeit for a short time, until the election.

The financial aid sent to Turkey by the Gulf countries, especially by Saudi Arabia, was used to reduce the impact of Erdoğan’s low-interest policy, rather than being spent on the earthquake zone, Borzou Daragahi claims in his Monday article for the Independent.

Stating that some autocratic regimes, including Russia, clustered around Erdoğan trying to influence the election results, Daragahi urged Western countries to step up. “While it could be risky to use their economic and diplomatic power to benefit the opposition, they can and should act to prevent other nations from meddling,” he writes.

The 1999 İzmit earthquake and Erdoğan’s rise to power

After the earthquake that affected seven provinces in Turkey’s northwestern Marmara region, the government of the time was heavily criticised for its failed response.

The 1999 İzmit earthquake, one of the biggest disasters in the modern history of Turkey, had an impact on Erdoğan’s power-building process that would enable him to come to power in the 2002 elections.

After the earthquake that affected seven provinces in Turkey’s northwestern Marmara region, with over 18,000 deaths and nearly 6,000 missing people according to the official figures, the government of the time was heavily criticised for its failed response and the officials of the time accepted the inability of the state.

“Many people felt abandoned by a paternalistic government. Turkish intellectuals and activists formed and bolstered their own civil society organisations aimed at helping one another through all manner of difficulties,” explains the New York Times.

After his rise to power in 2002, which was paralleled by a surge in civic activity among the people who were frustrated by the government’s incompetence and destructive policies, Erdoğan would gradually insulate himself from the political competition, according to the New York Times:

“Bit by bit, destroy the independence of institutions, civil society, the media. Drain the legislature of its oversight power. Bend the judiciary to your will. Use the law to remove popular competitors from the playing field of politics. Slowly, then all at once, you are the only person who can win an election.”

Erdoğan’s Islamist-based AKP, which aimed to centralise power during its two decades, moved Turkey away from its secular line and replaced the parliamentary system of the government that has existed since the establishment of Turkey with a presidential system, which many describe as a “one-man rule”, which actually created its own vulnerability. “If the president controls all the levers of power, who else can he blame when the response to a disaster goes awry” said Lydia Polgreen in an opinion piece in the New York Times.

In the meantime, Kılıçdaroğlu of the secular Republican People’s Party (CHP), who has reformed his own party into “more closely aligned with European social democrat values” over the years according to EURACTIV, represents the polar opposite of Erdoğan with his promise of returning the country to its parliamentary system and decentralising power.

“Erdoğan came to power on the back of the 1999 earthquake and ensuing economic crisis. The 6 February quake was at least twice as deadly and the current economic crisis is worse than that of the early 2000s,” the Spectator writes. “The same factors that helped Erdoğan win the elections 21 years ago, could bring him crashing down in May.”

Kurds play a kingmaker role

After Kılıçdaroğlu announced his candidacy, HDP’s co-chair Mithat Sancar said that his party was ready to support a joint presidential candidate, if an agreement on a roadmap for Turkey’s democratic transformation could be achieved.

However, Erdoğan’s political fate still remains uncertain, and although the situation does not look very bright for him in recent polls, there are also some analysts pointing to Erdoğan’s ability to regain his popularity in the two months leading up to the election.

According to the New York Times, AKP’s foreign policy and Erdoğan’s friends on the global stage can also be a protector for him. “Turkey is a NATO member that nevertheless has warming ties with Russia, making it a crucial and sometimes frustrating player in the Ukraine crisis,” the newspaper says.

The Spectator, noting that both sides needed the support of Turkey’s large Kurdish minority, who constitute more than 15 percent of the votes, to win the election, pointed out the importance of the Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP), which is currently the third-largest party in the parliament, supported by the vast majority of Kurds.

“Their support for Erdoğan is highly unlikely: the party has faced constant persecution, with dozens of their mayors removed from office and hundreds of party members imprisoned,” the Spectator says.

Meanwhile, Turkey’s Constitutional Court is yet to decide on an ongoing case against HDP where prosecutors demand the closure of the party and the banning of almost 500 members.

However, HDP’s decision on whether to field their own presidential candidate or support the CHP leader will be made after the party’s meeting with the main opposition leader.

After Kılıçdaroğlu announced his candidacy, HDP’s co-chair Mithat Sancar said that his party was ready to support a joint presidential candidate, if an agreement on a roadmap for Turkey’s democratic transformation could be achieved. On Monday, Kılıçdaroğlu confirmed his plans to meet with senior officials of the country’s pro-Kurdish party.

“The elections in May, assuming they are allowed to proceed freely and fairly, could offer another rare chance for the Turkish people to try again,” writes the New York Times.


Share post
Tags: AKPCHPEarthquakeElectionsHDPinternational mediaKemal KılıçdaroğluManset2Recep Tayyip ErdoğanTrendingTurkey

Related Posts

Bar association calls for effective investigation as Turkish gendarmes kill 28-year-old man

Bar association calls for effective investigation as Turkish gendarmes kill 28-year-old man

April 2, 2023
Turkey’s Human Rights Association calls on authorities to end torture in prisons

Turkey’s Human Rights Association calls on authorities to end torture in prisons

April 2, 2023
Turkey: Lice massacre case lawyer applies to be parliamentary candidate for Green Left Party

Turkey: Lice massacre case lawyer applies to be parliamentary candidate for Green Left Party

April 2, 2023
Turkey: Government supporters attack opposition presidential candidate over prayer rug incident

Turkey: Government supporters attack opposition presidential candidate over prayer rug incident

April 2, 2023

Residents of Kurdish controlled northeast Syria celebrate Akitu festival

April 2, 2023
HDP co-chair echoes Brazilian anti-government slogan ahead of Turkish elections

HDP co-chair echoes Brazilian anti-government slogan ahead of Turkish elections

April 2, 2023

Videos

Turkey: Lice massacre case lawyer applies to be parliamentary candidate for Green Left Party
Uncategorized

Turkey: Lice massacre case lawyer applies to be parliamentary candidate for Green Left Party

April 2, 2023

All News

Bar association calls for effective investigation as Turkish gendarmes kill 28-year-old man

Turkey’s Human Rights Association calls on authorities to end torture in prisons

Turkey: Lice massacre case lawyer applies to be parliamentary candidate for Green Left Party

Turkey: Government supporters attack opposition presidential candidate over prayer rug incident

Residents of Kurdish controlled northeast Syria celebrate Akitu festival

HDP co-chair echoes Brazilian anti-government slogan ahead of Turkish elections

Medya News

Impressum

About us

Privacy Policy

Subscribe
Contact
No Result
View All Result
  • Home
  • All News
  • Opinion
  • Kurdistan
  • Women
  • World
  • Politics
  • Human Rights
  • Ecology
  • Economy
  • Culture & Art
  • Daily Review
  • Breaking News
  • Newsletter
  • Authors
  • Podcast

Welcome Back!

Login to your account below

Forgotten Password?

Retrieve your password

Please enter your username or email address to reset your password.

Log In
We use cookies on our website to give you the most relevant experience by remembering your preferences and repeat visits. By clicking “Accept All”, you consent to the use of ALL the cookies. However, you may visit "Cookie Settings" to provide a controlled consent.
Cookie SettingsAccept All
Manage consent

Privacy Overview

This website uses cookies to improve your experience while you navigate through the website. Out of these, the cookies that are categorized as necessary are stored on your browser as they are essential for the working of basic functionalities of the website. We also use third-party cookies that help us analyze and understand how you use this website. These cookies will be stored in your browser only with your consent. You also have the option to opt-out of these cookies. But opting out of some of these cookies may affect your browsing experience.
Necessary
Always Enabled
Necessary cookies are absolutely essential for the website to function properly. These cookies ensure basic functionalities and security features of the website, anonymously.
CookieDurationDescription
cookielawinfo-checkbox-analytics11 monthsThis cookie is set by GDPR Cookie Consent plugin. The cookie is used to store the user consent for the cookies in the category "Analytics".
cookielawinfo-checkbox-functional11 monthsThe cookie is set by GDPR cookie consent to record the user consent for the cookies in the category "Functional".
cookielawinfo-checkbox-necessary11 monthsThis cookie is set by GDPR Cookie Consent plugin. The cookies is used to store the user consent for the cookies in the category "Necessary".
cookielawinfo-checkbox-others11 monthsThis cookie is set by GDPR Cookie Consent plugin. The cookie is used to store the user consent for the cookies in the category "Other.
cookielawinfo-checkbox-performance11 monthsThis cookie is set by GDPR Cookie Consent plugin. The cookie is used to store the user consent for the cookies in the category "Performance".
viewed_cookie_policy11 monthsThe cookie is set by the GDPR Cookie Consent plugin and is used to store whether or not user has consented to the use of cookies. It does not store any personal data.
Functional
Functional cookies help to perform certain functionalities like sharing the content of the website on social media platforms, collect feedbacks, and other third-party features.
Performance
Performance cookies are used to understand and analyze the key performance indexes of the website which helps in delivering a better user experience for the visitors.
Analytics
Analytical cookies are used to understand how visitors interact with the website. These cookies help provide information on metrics the number of visitors, bounce rate, traffic source, etc.
Advertisement
Advertisement cookies are used to provide visitors with relevant ads and marketing campaigns. These cookies track visitors across websites and collect information to provide customized ads.
Others
Other uncategorized cookies are those that are being analyzed and have not been classified into a category as yet.
SAVE & ACCEPT

Add New Playlist

Loading
Contact