Researchers from Vienna’s Complexity Science Hub (CSH) have uncovered evidence of manipulation in the recent presidential election held in Turkey on 14 May.
The team, known for their work in statistically proving voter rigging and ballot stuffing, observed statistically unlikely positive results for the incumbent president, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, in 2.4 percent of the constituencies, raising concerns about the integrity of the election.
The team’s observations corroborate a recent study by the Workers’ Party of Turkey (TİP) which had pointed out the same statistical anomaly.
The researchers have found that:
– 2.4 percent of electoral units may have been affected by ballot-stuffing practices in favour of Erdoğan.
– The magnitude of these distortions has decreased, down from 8.5 percent in 2018 (to a point where the ballot stuffing test does not detect statistically significant effects).
– There is small, but statistically significant evidence of voter manipulation.
– Areas with fewer and smaller polling stations had significantly inflated vote and turnout numbers, again, in favour of Erdoğan.
– These signs of electoral fraud were accompanied by other striking inequalities in campaigning (e.g., differences in television airtime).
