Speculation on a possible resettlement of Gazans to various countries, Turkey included, in turn for financial aid, follows the diplomatic tour of US Secretary of State Antony Blinken in the Middle East, which culminated in Ankara on Monday.
These rumours carry weight against the backdrop of President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s ambitions in northern Syria which he hasn’t shied of sharing with the world, displaying a map of such plans during his address at the United Nations General Assembly in 2019. Erdoğan has reinforced these intentions, declaring the region more suitable for Arabs than Kurds, an assertion followed by Turkey’s subsequent settlement initiatives there.
Blinken concluded his visit in Ankara with talks focused on the dire situation in Gaza, the urgency of humanitarian aid, and the broader stability of the region. During a press conference before leaving Ankara, he underscored support for Gaza amidst intensifying conflict. But the top US diplomat’s Middle East tour has left the Turkish public parsing the details of what was – and notably, what was not – discussed in the high-level meeting. While regional counterparts have openly expressed their opposition, the silence from Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan—previously a vocal critic of forced relocation—on the potential movement of Gazans has fuelled widespread speculation.
Throughout Blinken’s journey, regional leaders have expressed clear opposition to any involuntary population transfers, breaching international norms. This theme resonated from the West Bank to Iraq, with Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas and others reiterating the prohibition of forced relocations, an assertion affirmed in Blinken’s successive discussions, including his Amman summit. There, amid counterparts from Jordan, Egypt, Qatar, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and the Palestine Liberation Organisation, unity against Gazan displacement was evident.
Despite Turkey’s previous pronouncements through its foreign minister on the illegality of Gazans’ southern migration, as proposed by Israel, Ankara has remained notably reticent on this during Blinken’s visit. The silence prompts speculation about a contentious potential deal: the US’s tacit approval of Turkey’s demographic manoeuvres in northern Syria for accommodating displaced Gazans. This theory is supported by criticisms from Amnesty International, Human Rights Watch, and UN reports, accusing Turkey of ethnic cleansing against Kurds and Christians in that area.
Erdoğan, an outspoken opponent of US policies towards Israel, was notably absent from the capital during Blinken’s visit. However, his absence may not be as commentators suggest: it is possible he wished to avoid being historically marked as a Muslim leader associated with the depopulation of Gaza.
