On 6-9 August, groups affiliated with the Damascus regime carried out an attack in the Deir ez-Zor (Dêrezor) region in northeastern Syria. There have been similar attacks before. The most recent attack on 6-9 August resulted in the tragic killing of 13 civilians. The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and the Deir ez-Zor Military Council immediately responded to these attacks, securing the region.
The response of the Syrian Democratic Forces
The Syrian Democratic Forces, including the Deir ez-Zor Military Council, responded by eliminating 25 armed attackers. The region is currently calm, but potential threats continue, and it is expected that the attacks may resume.
The strategic importance of Deir ez-Zor and possibilities for the future
It appears that the recent events in Deir ez-Zor are a harbinger of developments to come. Both the developments in Syria and the broader situation in the Middle East indicate that Deir ez-Zor may become still more volatile in the near future.
This raises the question: Why Deir ez-Zor? To answer this correctly, we need to consider the strategic importance of Deir ez-Zor. The region’s underground wealth is highly significant. Geographically, it is strategically located, with many forces vying for control. There are remnants of ISIS and their hidden cells in the area. It is obvious that the region is also the focus of hegemonic and regional power struggles. It is also important to note that Deir ez-Zor is not just a small town or a piece of land; it is a large geographical area, three times the size of Lebanon, covering 30,000 square kilometers.
Underground wealth and regional conflicts in Deir ez-Zor
The underground resources in Deir ez-Zor are a major attraction for all forces. A significant portion of Syria’s oil and natural gas reserves are drawn from this region. For this reason, the area has become a target for both regional and international powers. The region is strategically significant, as it lies along the Syrian-Iraqi border and extends along the Euphrates River. The Euphrates River runs through the heart of Deir ez-Zor city, making this area critical for military and logistical operations.
The Euphrates River and power dynamics in the region
The Damascus regime, Iranian-backed militias, Russia and international coalition forces against ISIS are all present in the region. The southern and eastern sides of the Euphrates River are under the control of the Damascus regime, while the northern side is controlled by the Syrian Democratic Forces. There are also vast deserts in the region where ISIS still has hidden active cells.
The population of Deir ez-Zor and the impact of the war
The population of Deir ez-Zor was estimated to be around 1.7 million, that is, almost two million, before the Syrian war. However, due to the war and subsequent ISIS attacks, hundreds of thousands of people have fled the region. The area is predominantly inhabited by Arabs, although Kurds are also present. It is worth recalling that the area was under ISIS control for a long time until the Syrian Democratic Forces launched Operation “Cizre (Jazeera) Storm” on 9 September 2017, to liberate the region from ISIS. While the eastern part of the city is governed by the Deir ez-Zor Civil Council, the other side of the Euphrates River is controlled by forces aligned with Russia and Iran. ISIS continues to be present in the deserts.
The forces behind the attacks
The Autonomous Administration of Northeast Syria (AANES) stated recently that Turkey and the Damascus regime are behind these attacks. It is well known that Turkey and the Damascus regime are currently engaged in a diplomatic dialogue. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is seeking a meeting with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, and Russia is acting as a mediator. However, Assad has not yet agreed to meet with Erdoğan, and the talks continue at an intelligence level.
Relations between Turkey and the Damascus regime
The question of whether Turkey is behind these attacks remains unanswered. According to information from the region, Turkey recently held a meeting in Urfa (Riha), attended by Turkish-backed Syrian armed groups as well as representatives of some armed groups affiliated with the Damascus regime. Therefore, it is highly likely that Turkey is behind the attacks. Turkey wants the Damascus regime to control the entirety of Rojava (Syrian Kurdistan) and northeast Syria, and does not want the Kurds to gain any status in Syria. The Damascus regime sees Turkey as weak in this regard, believing that it holds stronger cards and can extract more concessions from Turkey. The primary demand of the Damascus regime is the withdrawal of Turkey from the occupied territories.
The Deir ez-Zor attack and messages from Damascus
The Damascus regime may be sending the following message to Turkey with the Deir ez-Zor attack: “If you fulfill my demands, I will be able to reciprocate with yours.” This attack could be seen as a signal to Ankara. On the other hand, it may be that the regime wants to send a message to the Syrian Democratic Forces: “This region belongs to me, and I will secure control.” Although the Damascus regime may not have stated it directly, it may have conveyed this message through proxy groups.
The Damascus Regime and the role of Difa al-Watani
Of course, the Damascus regime is unlikely to directly claim responsibility for these attacks. Instead, it may present itself as a mediator, suggesting that these events occurred independently of its influence. However, we know that the paramilitary group Difa al-Watani (National Defence Forces) is affiliated with the Damascus regime and is directly connected to Bashar al-Assad’s administration. This group is active not only in Deir ez-Zor but in many other parts of Syria.
Tribal reactions and regional tensions
Local tribes have issued various statements expressing discomfort with the use of their names in these incidents. Additionally, these tribes indicate that the paramilitary groups attacking the region, particularly Difa al-Watani, are disliked by the local population, and that they raise concerns about sectarian tensions.
The structure of the Syrian Democratic Forces
The Syrian Democratic Forces are not based on any sect or ethnic identity; instead, they are a pluralistic organisation that embraces all ethnicities and religious sects. The Deir ez-Zor Military Council, a branch of the SDF, is composed of local residents of Deir ez-Zor.
The strategy of the Damascus regime and the political dimension
The Damascus regime seeks to portray the situation as a local conflict, claiming that the Syrian Democratic Forces are unable to maintain security, thus laying the groundwork for a military intervention. However, as everyone knows, the Syrian army currently lacks the capacity to establish control or authority across the entire country. The regime has also lost the capability to fight against the Syrian Democratic Forces. Nonetheless, the issue is not military but political.
The Autonomous Administration’s call for dialogue
The Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria stresses the need for a resolution through dialogue and continues to make calls to this end. They urge the Damascus regime to stop conceding to Ankara’s demands. However, there has not yet been a positive response from Damascus to these calls. In summary, the Damascus regime has not yet shown the will or the inclination to address the issues in northern and eastern Syria through a political perspective and dialogue.
Future developments in Deir ez-Zor and regional tensions
Given these circumstances, it is likely that developments in and around Deir ez-Zor will become increasingly important in the coming days, with clashes and attacks intensifying at times. We understand from statements of the Syrian Democratic Forces, this prediction has been acknowledged, and preparations are being made accordingly.
The impact of Middle Eastern developments on Deir ez-Zor
As mentioned earlier, the developments in this region are not isolated from the broader dynamics of the Middle East. Currently, there is significant tension between Iran and Israel, which in various ways has escalated into what can be considered a war. In this atmosphere, Syria occupies a significant position within the overall regional picture. However, the Syrian regime has not yet taken a firm stance in favour of Iran. Normally, it would be expected that Bashar al-Assad would take a tough stance against Israel, but he seems reluctant to take sides in the conflict between Iran and Israel and consequently become a target. This position has caused frustration in Tehran, as Iran is not pleased with Assad’s hesitancy.
Asad’s message to Iran with the Deir ez-Zor Attacks
Aware of this frustration, Assad may be using the Deir ez-Zor attacks to send a message to Iran. Iranian forces are also present in the region, particularly the southern part of the Euphrates River under Syrian regime control. It is possible that Assad is saying to Iran, “I can provide you with space here.”
US and Iranian interest in the strategic importance of the region
It should be noted that the northern part of the Euphrates River, where American soldiers are stationed in oil and gas fields, is an area of interest to both the US and Iran. Recognising the strategic importance of this area, Assad may be conveying the message to Iran: “Look, we can offer you space here.”
Conclusion
In conclusion, considering Turkey-Syria relations, regional dynamics, Assad’s efforts to appease Iran, and his attempts to threaten the Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria, it is likely that more significant developments will occur in Deir ez-Zor in the coming days. However, a political perspective remains essential for resolving the conflict in Syria. The actors in Damascus, Tehran and Ankara are all aware that Syria cannot continue in its current state. But each party is trying to shape the developments according to its own interests. History has shown time and again, and continues to show, that no project that disregards the will, organisation and resistance of the people in the region will succeed.
Amed Dicle was born and raised in Diyarbakır (Amed), Turkey. He has worked for Kurdish-language media outlets in Europe, including Roj TV, Sterk TV and ANF. His career has taken him to Rojava, Syria, Iraq and many countries across Europe. Follow him on Twitter.
