Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s recent declaration that the upcoming 31 March local elections would mark his last electoral participation has ignited discussions on the future of Turkey’s governance and the one-man regime he has been associated with.
Some view it as a strategy to solidify voter support in the upcoming local elections by suggesting a final chance to vote for him, others already began speculating on potential successors. However, subsequent statements from government sources, hinting at potential ways for Erdoğan to continue in power, such as a snap election or parliamentary approval for another term, suggest that the retirement announcement may have backfired, and the government has been forced to undertake damage control.
Justice Minister Yılmaz Tunç stated that the constitution allows for a potential third candidacy for Erdoğan if the Grand National Assembly decides to renew elections. Tunç referenced Article 101 of the constitution, which generally limits presidents to two terms but noted that Article 116 provides an exception: if the Assembly, with the support of at least three-fifths of its members (360 deputies), decides to renew elections during a president’s second term, a third term could become legally permissible.
“Let’s see what time brings,” Tunç remarked, indicating a legal pathway for Erdoğan’s continued political presence through this constitutional mechanism.
Former Justice Minister Bekir Bozdağ echoed this sentiment on social media, pointing out the same constitutional clause that allows for an additional presidential candidacy if elections are renewed by the parliament. “What tomorrow brings is unknown. Perhaps when the time comes, the Assembly will decide to renew elections, enabling our President to stand for election once more. Let’s see what the future holds,” Bozdağ said, highlighting the possibility of a third term for Erdoğan as a “constitutional right” should the Assembly choose to invoke this option.
Amid domestic discussions, international observers have also weighed in. In an article for 19fortyfive.com, Michael Rubin delved into Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan’s recent visit to Washington, highlighting its potential significance beyond the official agenda of resetting US-Turkey relations. Suggesting that Fidan’s trip might be serving a more covert purpose amid rumours about President Erdoğan’s health and political future, Rubin asked whether Fidan, whom he describes as “J. Edgar Hoover on steroids,” is seeking US endorsement to succeed Erdoğan.
However, the discussion about President Erdoğan’s final departure from power or whether he can run for a third term conceals bigger questions about the future of the political system he shaped in Turkey. Some wonder if this system, often called a “one-man regime,” can last without Erdoğan himself. Moreover, beyond mere speculation, Erdoğan’s past actions suggest that his retirement announcement may primarily be a strategy to reengage his dedicated but increasingly discontented supporters.
